Welcome to X factors!
This is an exercise I like to do every August in acknowledgement of our own collective stupidity. We like to think we know just who the good NFL players are in the league, and who the rising players are -- but nobody really knows from where the next key player will emerge. Here's a great example: Last season, I identified the open WR3 spot on the Rams' offense as a key issue with the team and tagged Tutu Atwell as the X factor for that offense. Should he rise into the role and succeed, the Rams' passing game would soar. Right idea, wrong guy.
That's why the exercise is helpful. It forces us to think beyond the star quarterback and star pass rusher and star coach for each team, and answer the question: "if [INSERT TEAM HERE] is surprisingly good/surprisingly bad this season, it was likely because of [INSERT PLAYER HERE]." Thinking about X factors forces us to think about roles, fits and risers beyond the regularly discussed first-rounders and trade acquisitions.
In the spirit of the exercise, I tried to name no coaches (successful) and no quarterbacks (had to do it for two teams, both of which you could probably guess without scrolling). Here are my candidates for each team's biggest X factor in the 2024 season:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals: Edge Zaven Collins
The Arizona pass rush is in dire straits. BJ Ojulari, a standout last season, suffered a season-ending ACL injury during training camp, and rookie first-round pick Darius Robinson is expected to miss at least the first month of the season with a calf injury. The single best season for sack production among all rostered, healthy Cardinals belongs to Dennis Gardeck, who had seven sacks in 2020 (and has seven total sacks in his other five seasons as a pro).
Gardeck will start opposite Collins, a 2021 first-round selection at off-ball linebacker who made the switch to full-time edge rusher last season. It is unfair to expect Collins to make a similar leap like the one Haason Reddick -- another Arizona draft pick who transitioned from off-ball linebacker to edge rusher -- once enjoyed, but it is reasonable to expect he is better off the edge in Year 2 than he was in Year 1. The Cardinals clearly expect it: They extended Collins on a two-year, $14 million deal.
While Collins is probably most valuable for his versatility, his pass-rush impact will be the most important part of his game following these early-season injuries.
Los Angeles Rams: DT Kobie Turner
Were Turner a top-five pick, he likely would have won Defensive Rookie of the Year last season. The third-round selection from Wake Forest totaled nine sacks and 27 pressures, both of which led all rookie defensive tackles. It's impossible to completely take the edge off the retirement of Aaron Donald, but Turner's strong debut was certainly a bright spot.
How will Turner's game adjust to the absence of Donald? You might think he's going to see more double-teams, but he was often the double-team eater last season as the Rams schemed Donald into one-on-one rushes. Will that continue for Turner as the team develops second-rounder Braden Fiske, who profiles more as the undersized penetrator to run beside Turner's space-gobbling approach? Or will Turner's surprising pass-rush success earn him the focal point of the Rams' pass-rush plans in 2024?
If the team has found a middle-round gem from the interior, the defense will still feel the absence of Donald. Just not as acutely.
San Francisco 49ers: OT Trent Williams
It is Friday. In six days, regular-season football will be happening. The 49ers still haven't gotten Williams into the building. That's very bad, folks!
Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk received far more headlines during his holdout (which is mercifully over), but let's remember what this offense looks like without Williams. Brock Purdy has played 1,435 snaps with Williams, and the 49ers have averaged a whopping 0.18 expected points added (EPA) per play on those snaps. In the 147 snaps Purdy has taken without Williams, that EPA per play drops to 0.00 -- just an average offense.
Now, will the 49ers have to play a game without Williams? It's unlikely. True, in-season holdouts are not common in the NFL. The most recent one was ... well, Williams in 2019, who was holding out in Washington all the way through the trade deadline.
That was a bit of a unique circumstance. Williams was frustrated with the Washington medical staff after a cancerous growth was removed from his head in the spring. Still, he has shown he's willing to miss game checks when he's dissatisfied with his environment. While the collective bargaining agreement signed in 2020 made it tougher for veterans to hold out from training camps with a stricter fine policy, the penalty for holding out from games is much as it was in 2019.
The fact Aiyuk's deal finally got finished will reinvigorate the Williams discussions. But as ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported earlier this week, Week 1 is in serious jeopardy for Williams. And if the 49ers continue to hold their ground and this extends into the season, we'll see the offense suffer accordingly.
Seattle Seahawks: CB Riq Woolen
It's hard to imagine a bigger X factor across the NFL. The 2022 fifth-round pick won a starting job as a rookie and took the league by storm with six interceptions, unreal speed and size, some Defensive Rookie of the Year hype and contrived Sauce Gardner drama.
Just 2 rookies playing ball 🤝@iamSauceGardner | @_Tariqwoolen pic.twitter.com/5lMpLFdNRq
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) January 7, 2023
Last season reminded us of the shakiness of cornerback play. Woolen was still long, fast and sticky, but he didn't produce on the ball nearly as well. Far more importantly, he struggled as a tackler, enough so that he got benched during a game against the 49ers. A shoulder injury was cited by the coaching staff, but he hadn't been on the injury report and was cold as a tackler all season.
It's tough to know exactly what happened, but here we are in 2024 with a new coaching staff and a reportedly reinvigorated Woolen. If he can return to his 2022 production and level out as a tackler, he and 2023 top-five pick Devon Witherspoon form one of the best cornerback duos in the league. Suddenly, Seattle's defense doesn't look too shaky.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys: LB DeMarvion Overshown
I hope you love something in your life the same way Dan Quinn loves converting a safety to a linebacker. The former Dallas defensive coordinator did it with Keanu Neal in 2021 as the former Falcon tried to extend his career, with undrafted free agent Markquese Bell last season and with veteran Jayron Kearse at different times over the past three years (though the team still called him a safety, that man was playing linebacker). Then, in what turned out to be Quinn's final season in Dallas, the team drafted Overshown, a college safety-to-linebacker convert.
Overshown was meant to have a big impact as a rookie, running alongside Leighton Vander Esch. But he lost his entire season to a preseason ACL tear, and after Vander Esch went down, opportunity arose for players such as Bell.
New defensive coordinator (and former Vikings head coach) Mike Zimmer has historically used linebacker-sized linebackers to make his defense work, and he brought in longtime Viking Eric Kendricks accordingly. Kendricks' best football is behind him, however, and if the veteran is forced into a starting role beside Damone Clark, the Cowboys will struggle in coverage over the middle of the field.
Overshown is Dallas' best bet at finding a three-down linebacker on the roster -- better than Bell, Kendricks or 2024 third-round selection Marist Liufau. Of the undersized options, he has the sideline-to-sideline range and violence into contact that will remain viable against the run. If he converts two promising preseasons into successful regular-season play, he'll quickly become a playmaker Zimmer deploys on his complex blitzes, too.
New York Giants: CB Deonte Banks
There's a lot to like for the front seven in New York. Trade acquisition Brian Burns joins Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux on the defensive line, while linebacker Bobby Okereke, a nice free agent signing from last offseason, anchors the second level.
But the secondary? It's thin and untested. Veteran safety Xavier McKinney was the glue for this unit in previous years, but he left for a big deal in Green Bay. Veteran corner Adoree' Jackson, who struggled for much of his time in New York, is still a free agent. Those departures have forced cornerback Nick McCloud and safety Dane Belton into starting roles.
The most important spot belongs to Banks, though. The 2023 first-round pick took his rookie lumps last season, but the clear signs of belonging were there: speed, size, ball skills, recognition. He held his own, often in isolated man coverage as defensive coordinator Wink Martindale left him on an island. The Giants ranked second in man coverage last season, but new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen runs a more diverse blend of coverages. That will particularly help Banks, whose zone feel was impressive in college.
Banks is high on my list of players to take a sophomore leap. I expect him to be the final Infinity Stone in an improved Giants defense.
Philadelphia Eagles: C Cam Jurgens
I don't envy the man tasked with stepping into Jason Kelce's shoes. Beyond the leadership Kelce offered in the locker room -- and that isn't something to just wave at, as team continuity has been a recent challenge for the Eagles -- he was a cornerstone of the offense. Now, Jurgens must be that.
Kelce was responsible for setting the protections in the passing game and calling out checks and audibles in the running game. He was a true coach on the field, and the complexity of the Eagles' rushing attack -- perennially one of the best in the league -- was in large part his achievement. That's both on first-and-10, and on fourth-and-1, when the infamous tush push (aka "Cheek Sneak," aka "Brotherly Shove") was an automatic first down. Jurgens, a 2022 second-round pick who was approved by Kelce as an heir apparent, simply will not be able to fill all of these responsibilities.
The question is: Just what can Jurgens do? He got plenty of starting experience at right guard last season, which will hopefully cut down on mental mistakes (of which there will inevitably be a few) as he moves to center. He is an excellent athlete on the move, which should help the Eagles continue to rely on their screen game and pulling lead blockers, as they always did with Kelce. If early on Jurgens can be the mover Kelce was, the mental side will come with time and Philadelphia's rushing attack should still remain an ever-reliable strength. That will be critical, as the newfangled passing attack under Kellen Moore will take some time to get off the ground.
Washington Commanders: WR Dyami Brown
Perhaps no incumbent Washington player will benefit more from new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury than Brown. A third-round selection in 2021, he never broke into the wide receiver rotation under former coordinators Scott Turner or Eric Bieniemy. He's a bit of a one-trick pony: He runs good vertical routes, has good speed and tracks the ball well. But outside of a vertical route, he wasn't bringing much value to the Commanders' passing attack.
Good news! Kingsbury's offense needs receivers who can line up outside, get vertical and win a one-on-one against the sideline. That's Brown's bread and butter. It already seemed like he had won the starting outside receiver job opposite Terry McLaurin before the Jahan Dotson trade -- he was taking consistent reps with the first-teamers while all receivers below him were rotating -- but now it's a lock.
Even more good news for Brown: New quarterback Jayden Daniels relied heavily on winning isolation one-on-ones at LSU last season. (You would too if you had Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.) If Brown can win consistently on this route, it will smooth the on-ramp for Daniels as the rookie gets up to NFL speed, ensure the Commanders have a viable non-McLaurin target and create scoring opportunities via the explosive play.
Jayden Daniels launches it DEEP on his second throw
— NFL (@NFL) August 10, 2024
📱: Stream #WASvsNYJ on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/tGSoMxc4gI
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears: DT Gervon Dexter
Cover the Bears' defensive line with your hand, and it's not hard to talk yourself into a playoff appearance for rookie quarterback Caleb Williams -- the rest of the depth chart is up to snuff. But 731 snaps from Justin Jones are out the door in free agency, and 2023 second-round selection Gervon Dexter Sr. is in line to pick up that slack.
This is a big vote of faith in Dexter, who was very up-and-down as a rookie and only started to string together semi-consistent play late in the season. It's very important that the Bears' defense has a pass rusher from the interior -- they're a consistent four-down team without many blitz packages or changeups along the defensive line -- and starter Andrew Billings has traditionally been a run-defending nose tackle. When Matt Eberflus was the defensive coordinator of the Colts, they executed a big trade for DeForest Buckner, and the Buckner-Grover Stewart duo made everything else on this defense tick.
After the Montez Sweat trade last season, the Bears quietly came along -- they went 5-4, and their defense was fifth in both EPA per play and success rate. If anything takes the wind out of this unit in 2024, it will be a lack of complimentary pass rush to Sweat. Dexter is first on the list to ensure that issue never happens.
Detroit Lions: WR Jameson Williams
I really wanted to put Carlton Davis III, whom I love, here. Then I realized: I am so confident in Davis and rookie Terrion Arnold improving the corner play in Detroit that I don't even need to list it as an X factor. (Please don't try to screenshot this in case they're bad.)
Good corner play would be a huge swing for Detroit's defense, but I'm a little worried about this offense. Wideout Josh Reynolds, who left in free agency to Denver, was an important player; 42.5% of his receptions last season went for explosive gains -- that was the most of anyone with at least 50 targets. Plus, 52.5% of his plays went for a first down or a touchdown, second only to Brandon Aiyuk. Reynolds was a key blocker in the "Robert Woods" role of this Sean McVay-inspired offense, helping the running game go. It might seem like Williams was WR2 in Detroit last season, but really, Reynolds outsnapped him in all but three games.
Williams was used as a field-stretcher last season: 29.5% of his routes were deep, which was sixth among all receivers, NGS charting shows. Players in a similar role included Tre Tucker, Jalin Hyatt, Marvin Mims Jr. -- second- and third-round picks. However, Williams was a first-round selection and must be able to take on a wider menu of routes accordingly. And with Amon-Ra St. Brown dominant in the slot and Sam LaPorta lining up as a tight end, Williams must be able to do it on the outside against CB1s. If Williams can't deliver on increased volume, this Lions passing attack will become worryingly siloed on St. Brown and LaPorta -- and that will make them far easier to defend on clear passing downs.
Green Bay Packers: S Xavier McKinney
When the Packers spend big on a free agent, you know that's an important player. They signed McKinney to a four-year, $68 million deal this spring in the midst of a substantial scheme change on defense. That's no coincidence.
Safety play was a huge issue in Green Bay last season. None of the top-four snap-getters at the position in 2023 is on the team this year. McKinney walks into a completely new room in a completely new defense, so it will be on him -- a smart veteran who played in a couple of different defenses with the Giants -- to get the safety room up to speed, fast.
We're not entirely sure what new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will run in the NFL, but at Boston College, he relied very heavily on a post safety -- that's one deep free safety roaming around in centerfield. McKinney can live there, but he has been best in his career in a more versatile role, that's how rookie safety Javon Bullard won at Georgia, as well. I think Hafley will mess around with his safeties quite a bit, and if McKinney is the player Green Bay paid for, he'll shine as the featured part of that secondary. A Jessie Bates III-esque explosion on a new team is in the cards here, and if the Packers finally enter the postseason with a serious defense... watch out.
Minnesota Vikings: Edge Jonathan Greenard
Greenard is a quality player. He was a quiet grinder on those very bad Texans teams (remember those, from a whole two years ago?) and took the expected leap in 2023 under coach DeMeco Ryans, who unleashed the entire Texans' pass rush. Greenard had 12.5 sacks (in the three previous seasons he totaled 10.5) and tallied a pressure on 24% of his pass rushes, easily a single season best. Those pass-rush improvements, combined with consistently solid run defense, enough skill in coverage and great effort make Greenard one of the most solid all-around players in the league.
The Vikings were happy to pay Greenard to be just that: solid with all-around quality. Brian Flores' blitz-heavy approach doesn't rely on edge rushers to be elite individual pass rushers, so Minnesota elected to sign Greenard to a $72 million, four-year contract, while Houston let Greenard walk to sign ex-Viking Danielle Hunter to a two year, $49 million deal.
Though the logic of the switch is sound, that's still 16.5 sacks walking out of the door in Hunter. Hunter is a sack artist, and sacks are drive-ending plays. Greenard cannot be just a quality edge defender with a nice 8.5 sack season -- the Vikings' defense will feel the absence of those sacks. He must win those one-on-ones he gets when Flores' fronts mess with protection rules; he must clean up on discombobulated quarterbacks who have avoided the first pressure from a bullet blitzer. If Greenard can bring the 12.5 sacks he tallied in Houston, he'll fill his role nicely, and this defense will continue to grow in Flores' second season. With a season-ending injury to J.J. McCarthy and expected hiccups on offense under Sam Darnold, the onus on the defense to win games just got a lot bigger.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: Edge Matthew Judon
No team in recent history has struggled to create a decent pass rush more than the Falcons. The team's top two sack artists from last season were 37-year-old Calais Campbell (6.5 sacks) and 30-year-old Bud Dupree (6.5 sacks). Neither is on the team this season. The last double-digit sack-getter in Atlanta was all the way back in 2016, which is wild. (It was that one really good Vic Beasley season under Dan Quinn, if you recall; 15.5 of Beasley's career 37.5 sacks came that year. He was first-team All-Pro!)
Enter Judon, whose contract demands with New England concluded with a trade to the Falcons. Atlanta sent a third-round pick for the 32-year-old, which is a steep price -- and it doesn't have a contract extension in place with him, which makes things even trickier. Judon is a great sack artist. He doesn't necessarily have high pressure rates, but when he gets to the quarterback, he consistently takes him down. If he has one more good season in him, Atlanta's defense will benefit tremendously.
As long as they're an average unit, and the offense is a good one (as expected), the Falcons might get that playoff appearance that has eluded them since the 2017 season. But if Judon is too far beyond his prime to deliver, there might not be enough edge-rushing depth to help him out.
Carolina Panthers: OT Ikem Ekwonu
I've had my quarterback Bryce Young worries since he was in college, and they haven't gone away with a year of pro film. But I'm willing to throw out much of Young's season based on his pass protection, especially from the left side of the line. As I wrote in my review of rising sophomore quarterbacks, Ekwonu had the worst pass block win rate of all starting left tackles last season. The number of immediate pressures that Young suffered from his blind side was equally astonishing and debilitating.
Mike Clay and Field Yates concur Chuba Hubbard is undoubtedly the better fantasy option over Miles Sanders.
But Ekwonu was the sixth overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft, so the Panthers are still invested in turning his career around. It is not outside of the realm of possibility. Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas looked like a bust in his rookie season; now, he's near elite. Ekwonu was far from perfect in his rookie season, but the promise was there. It all evaporated in 2023, but maybe it can be recovered.
The hope is that a better running game in Carolina will play further into Ekwonu's strengths -- he has always been a better run blocker than pass protector -- and that a new offensive system won't leave him on an island as often. The new offensive staff is going to use fewer spread formations and five-man protections to help both Ekwonu and Young with their respective weak points. But no amount of shrewd coaching can possibly fix Young's play, or Ekwonu's, if Ekwonu is not significantly better in pass protection than he was last year. You can only hide so much, and the priority will be coaching around Young's weaknesses, not Ekwonu's. This is a do-or-die season for his job on the left side of the line.
New Orleans Saints: OT Trevor Penning
Just a few short seasons ago, with Terron Armstead on the left and a rising star in Ryan Ramczyk on the right, the Saints had some of the best tackle play in the league. But Armstead got older and expensive, and when he left, the Saints drafted Penning to replace him. A first-rounder out of Northern Iowa, Penning was known for a nasty on-field demeanor and dominant run-blocking profile -- but that demeanor has largely been to his detriment in the pros. He has drawn penalties and struggled in pass protection; he has also suffered multiple foot injuries and missed critical development time.
After two poor seasons, it seemed like the Saints were ready to call the Penning experiment. But as Ramczyk now must miss the entire 2024 season with a knee injury, Penning has a second opportunity to hold down a starting job at right tackle.
With Derek Carr at quarterback, pass protection is of even greater importance than it usually is: Carr is hugely impacted by pressure and will fold late in games when he has been hurried early in them. If Penning benefits from another healthy season, cuts down on the penalties and transitions successfully to the right side -- that's collectively a big ask, mind you -- then we could see a better offense than expected.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CB Zyon McCollum
There's substantial change at all three levels of coach Todd Bowles' defense in Tampa Bay this season. Starting pass rusher Shaquil Barrett is retired, creating more work for Yaya Diaby and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Starting linebacker Devin White signed with the Eagles, creating more work for K.J. Britt. And cornerback Carlton Davis III is now in Detroit, leaving a starting role open for McCollum. No free agent moves were made to account for these departures, either. Bowles and GM Jason Licht are rightfully trusting their ability to draft and develop.
I'm highlighting McCollum here because I have a lot of confidence that Diaby is good enough to replace Barrett, and I have a lot of confidence that the absence of White is not a big one. But Davis has been a starting corner for six seasons in Tampa Bay, and over that time has proved to be a lights-out press option against opposing WR1s. He's injury-prone, a little older and terrible at catching the football, but he was a big part of this defense's success.
McCollum, who was a fifth-round draft pick in 2022, has the size (6-foot-2, 199 pounds) and explosiveness that made Davis so successful pressed up on the boundary. But last season, he got experience everywhere as he plugged into the starting lineup when others got injured -- he played outside on the left and right, over the slot and even at safety. Bowles called him the most improved player on the defense last year, citing versatility and toughness, but in a permanent outside cornerback role, you need coverage skills, instincts and maturity. Opposing teams will test McCollum early and often to see if the young corner really has what it takes to win outside.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos: C Luke Wattenberg
What do you know about Wattenberg off the top of your head? The 2022 fifth-rounder was a sparsely used backup interior offensive lineman for his first two season in Denver, but with Lloyd Cushenberry gone in free agency to the Titans, he looks to have won the starting job for Week 1.
Playing an inexperienced center with a rookie quarterback is a tricky proposition -- it'll be hard for the Broncos to adjust much at the line or change protections. The good news is the other four on the Broncos offensive line -- left tackle Garett Bolles, left guard Ben Powers, recently extended right guard Quinn Meinerz and right tackle Mike McGlinchey -- are experienced starters who played together last season. Continuity and veteran presence there should be high.
The bad news is the offensive line is a weak-link system. If a team has four above-average players and one below-average player, it still has pass-protection problems because defenses will occupy the good guys with numbers and take advantage of the matchup at center. If Wattenberg can rise to the call and achieve passable play, this Denver line should be mighty strong in the running game (as it was last season) and solid in pass protection (as it kind of was, though Russell Wilson made that hard to pull off). There's nothing better for a rookie quarterback's development than a good O-line.
Kansas City Chiefs: CB Trent McDuffie
McDuffie is probably the unquestioned "best" player on this list, as X factors are often young players in new starting roles or late-career veterans with a questionable amount of juice remaining. But with the trade of L'Jarius Sneed in March, McDuffie has become an even more critical player for the Chiefs.
Here's the problem with McDuffie: He's too good at everything. His prowess as a slot corner allowed the Chiefs to play Sneed outside from much of last season. From that nickel spot, McDuffie could cover or blitz or defend the run or take on a block or swing to deep safety, and he did it all with aplomb. But ideally, when a corner as talented as Sneed leaves so many snaps on the outside and a team has such a talented cover man in McDuffie on the roster, it bumps him outside and forgets about it.
But we saw McDuffie primarily play outside corner (75% of his snaps) in 2022, and while he was still good, he wasn't nearly as impactful as when he played in the slot last season. Ideally, the Chiefs get good enough play at outside corner from Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson to leave McDuffie in the slot in nickel and dime sets, but the team also has Justin Reid and Chamarri Conner, both of whom can play over the slot and push McDuffie outside. The secondary universe in Kansas City revolves around McDuffie, and he'll be put in different positions each week depending on the offense the Chiefs are facing. If the defense is that heliocentric, McDuffie indeed better be a star.
Las Vegas Raiders: RB Zamir White
What does a team do when its starting quarterback options are Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell? Run the football!
In all seriousness, the Raiders might have a nice cadre of playmakers. Davante Adams is a great WR1, Jakobi Meyers is a great WR2 and if rookie tight end Brock Bowers hits, that trio of pass catchers is more than enough to sustain a good passing attack. A team that expects to be in 12 personnel as much as the Raiders -- that's one running back, two tight ends (Bowers and Michael Mayer) -- must be able to run the football well. With Josh Jacobs gone to Green Bay, White, a fourth-rounder in 2022, has huge shoes to fill.
Liz Loza says she "doesn't fully trust" Zamir White when it comes to drafting him in fantasy football.
In the past two seasons combined, no player had more touches per game than Jacobs. White will need to prove he can handle that level of volume, which is a legitimate skill in this era of rotational backfields. Even if this ends up a timeshare between White and Alexander Mattison, we largely know what Mattison is as a player. All explosive runs would have to come from White, who has the breakaway speed to hit some home runs. If he proves to be a starting-caliber back, the offense will once again have the players necessary for a good quarterback to succeed in Las Vegas -- whenever that good quarterback arrives.
Los Angeles Chargers: RB J.K. Dobbins
Since Jim Harbaugh took the Chargers job, everyone has talked about how run-heavy the team will be. Hire Greg Roman to be the offensive coordinator? To run the ball! Draft Joe Alt instead of a wide receiver with the No. 5 overall pick? To run the ball!
Here's the problem: There's nobody to hand it off to. We know Gus Edwards is an excellent short-yardage back, but he shouldn't be the primary ball carrier between the 20s because he won't punish the defense when he breaks into the third level. Kimani Vidal, the rookie from Troy, was a sixth-round dart throw on a productive college back. If anyone in this backfield is going to take that high-volume, diverse rushing attack that Roman authors so wonderfully and turn it into big gains and explosive plays, it's Dobbins.
It's a thin bet. Dobbins has played in nine games over the past three seasons. His ACL tear took him out of the entire 2021 season and carried over into missed time in 2022; his Achilles tear last season came in the opening game. It is reasonable to doubt his availability, as well as his explosiveness after so many injuries. But if he can come back from those tough odds and handle even a decent volume of carries in this offense, he'll make that Roman/Harbaugh rushing game a lot more viable.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills: TE Dalton Kincaid
Two-hundred and forty-one targets: That's how many vacated opportunities are left behind as both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis left Buffalo this offseason. The Bills have opted for a committee approach at wide receiver, which I like, but to whom does Josh Allen turn on third-and-6 among his many options? For whom does offensive coordinator Joe Brady design the "gotta have it" play?
That player might be Kincaid, whom the Bills drafted with the intention of becoming an offense that can run through an elite pass-catching tight end. He was an efficient, high-volume target last season -- his 73 catches were third highest for a rookie tight end since 1970 -- but that cushy underneath gig worked only when Diggs and Davis were pushing the defense downfield. If the Buffalo offense is to work with this new look, Kincaid must be used downfield more frequently -- or develop a George Kittle-like profile after the catch.
The former is far more likely, and the good news is this: Kincaid catches everything. 77.7 reception rate is amazing, even for the easy targets he was offered. As his trust with Allen grows, expect him to start leading the Bills in targets in more games than he doesn't, and watch for Brady to scheme around Kincaid's versatility in alignment and routes to open up other players as well. He's the skeleton key of this passing attack.
Miami Dolphins: Every DT (Benito Jones, Zach Sieler, Jonathan Harris, Da'Shawn Hand, et al.)
The long contract saga between Christian Wilkins and the Dolphins ended with a whimper this offseason, as he left for a massive deal with the Raiders. Those 967 snaps -- a preposterous number -- were riddled with elite run defense and critical pass-rush wins. (The 530 departing snaps from Raekwon Davis, while less impactful, are nothing to sneeze at, either.)
The Dolphins tried to platoon the defensive tackle position this offseason with cheap free agent deals. They signed Teair Tart, Neville Gallimore, Jones and Harris in free agency ... and three of those four have been cut from the 53-man roster. Those don't seem like big deals, but Gallimore had $1.8 million fully guaranteed, which points to how confident Miami was he'd be part of its rotation.
Seth Walder says the Dolphins are a great value bet to win the Super Bowl.
Sieler is a good player, but beside him, snaps are up for grabs among Jones, a career backup; Brandon Pili, a 2023 undrafted free agent; Calais Campbell, who played edge rusher last season; and Hand, who was an edge rusher before he got to Miami. I'm worried about watching Dolphins games this season in which that high-octane offense is kept simmering on the sideline while the opposing offense runs the ball -- and the clock -- for much of the game. There's a lot to like on Miami's defense, but this positional hole is glaring.
New England Patriots: OT Vederian Lowe
It seems like everyone has watched the Patriots offensive line this preseason through the gaps in their fingers. New England has strength in the interior, and Chuks Okorafor is a passable option at right tackle. But on the blind side of Jacoby Brissett, the Week 1 starter, and Drake Maye, the future of the franchise, is Lowe.
He was a sixth-round selection of the Vikings in 2022, and the Patriots acquired him for the same pick last August. He started eight games last season and struggled mightily, but the Patriots didn't make any moves in free agency and drafted only a third-round right tackle (Caedan Wallace) as competition at the position. The starting left tackle job belongs to Lowe.
Lowe must take a big step forward if he's going to hold onto the job. If he's struggling, the Patriots will put Wallace out there in his stead and let the young player start to develop. And if Lowe is struggling, it'll be harder to insert Maye into the lineup and get the rookie quarterback the valuable reps he needs, as the coaching staff will fear a rookie-season injury to Maye off the blind side. If Lowe can hold his water, the path forward for New England is immediately accelerated.
New York Jets: Edge Haason Reddick
The Jets lost Bryce Huff in free agency and traded John Franklin-Myers to the Broncos this offseason, giving away the depth that has long made their pass rush so ferocious. The thought was acquiring an elite edge rusher via trade -- Reddick for a conditional 2026 third-round pick -- would account for the loss in depth. Reddick had double-digit sacks in each of the past four seasons.
But Reddick got double-digit sacks in the past four seasons by actually playing the past four seasons. He has spent his entire New York tenure holding out from training camp, demanding a new contract and now requesting a trade from the team that acquired him in March. The Jets' first game is in less than 10 days, and Reddick has yet to put on a uniform and practice.
He was always going to be the X factor for the Jets. If he's a 12-sack guy and Jermaine Johnson is a 10-sack guy (which he looked like he could be down the stretch last season), this pass rush will be just fine. But Reddick is now a super-duper X factor because we don't really know when he's going to show up and start playing for the Jets -- if at all.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens: OT Ronnie Stanley
It was heartbreaking to watch Stanley last season. The 2016 first-round pick was one of the league's best left tackles -- heck, one of the league's best linemen -- at his peak. But ankle and knee injuries have robbed him of playing time for much of the past few years, and last season he was forced to take series off to stay healthy enough for postseason football. Even then, it was clear he was not the player he used to be.
The 2023 Ravens' offensive line wasn't great overall, but it survived despite Stanley's struggles. In 2024? Right tackle Morgan Moses is gone. Right guard Kevin Zeitler is gone. Left guard John Simpson is gone. That's 2,744 offensive line snaps out the door.
The Ravens are patchworking the line as best they can with incumbent young players (Andrew Vorhees, Daniel Faalele) and a rookie (Roger Rosengarten), so bumps are inevitable. With their young players already called into starting roles, they don't have the infrastructure to endure another in-and-out season from Stanley. If he returns to a solid imitation of his previous form, it will allow the Ravens to spend more time and resources protecting the rest of the line and experimenting with combinations that might work for the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals: S Geno Stone
Losing Jessie Bates in 2023 free agency was a crippling blow to the Bengals. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, famous for his success against elite AFC quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, runs a complex defense. The sort of defense that must be quarterbacked by a smart, highly communicative safety -- ideally, a pair of them. When that duo was Bates and Vonn Bell, this defense sang. But when both left last year, Cincinnati gave up more explosive plays than any other team in the league.
Bell is back, so the Bengals can feel good about the strong safety spot. But Bates is still gone, and in his place the team signed Stone, who was thrust into the starting role for an injured Marcus Williams in Baltimore last season and hauled in seven interceptions from his deep safety spot.
Stone was known in Baltimore for his intelligence and vision, exactly what this defense needs to recover its previous form. He's not the sideline-to-sideline speedster Bates was, but if he can discourage downfield shots and coordinate the rest of the secondary in Anarumo's various zones, Cincinnati should bounce right back to its playoff-caliber defense.
Cleveland Browns: QB Deshaun Watson
The Browns acquired Watson before the 2022 season and haven't gotten consistently good play out of him yet. Meanwhile, the team has had excellent offensive line play (now in jeopardy as Bill Callahan has left for Tennessee), excellent wide receiver play (now in jeopardy as Amari Cooper is in the final year of his contract), excellent running back play (now in jeopardy as Nick Chubb rehabs from major injury) and astonishing defensive success under Jim Schwartz (probably not in jeopardy, because Schwartz is the man).
No team has been more aggressive in using future cap space to build a contender right here, right now, than the Browns. If their starting quarterback continues to play below backup level, they'll waste this window and stare down the barrel of a long rebuild. It is as simple as that.
Mina Kimes and Tim Cowlishaw break down their level of concern over the injury statuses of QB Deshaun Watson and RB Nick Chubb.
Pittsburgh Steelers: QBs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields
Listen, I don't want to be writing about Wilson and Fields right now. I want to write about a sophomore jump from defensive tackle Keeanu Benton, who looked great as a rookie. I want to write about the return of tight end Pat Freiermuth to the offense, or the development of offensive tackle Broderick Jones, or if we're all forgetting just how good safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is, or talking about the emergence of Joey Porter Jr. on the outside at cornerback.
Instead, I must be honest and admit that functional quarterback play is such a big deal in Pittsburgh that I will break my non-QB rule and focus on Wilson and Fields. I know for a fact this is a playoff-caliber roster because Mike Tomlin has dragged it to the playoffs, year over year, despite the intolerable play of Kenny Pickett and Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph and late-career Ben Roethlisberger. If Wilson, the Week 1 starter, can provide value as a deep-ball artist or quick-game distributor, it will help the Steelers go from funny playoff story to actual playoff threat.
And if he can't? Then perhaps Fields' legs, which long kept poor Chicago offenses afloat, will do the same in Pittsburgh. As long as the Steelers get, say, the 20th-best quarterback play in the league this season, they should win double-digit games. Big if!
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans: LB Azeez Al-Shaair
While I am interested to see how the Texans use Stefon Diggs, I have all the confidence in the world the offense will be good, so my X factor cannot be on that side of the ball. Instead, I'm looking at off-ball linebacker. DeMeco Ryans, a linebackers coach before he was a defensive coordinator and head coach, did an incredible job working around shaky talent last season. (Let's not forget he told Christian Harris exactly how to get a pick-six on the sideline of the first playoff game he ever coached.)
But while Ryans got a lot out of Harris, Blake Cashman (now in Minnesota), Denzel Perryman (now in Los Angeles) and Henry To'oTo'o, his defenses have always thrived with elite linebacker play. Al-Shaair is not Fred Warner, of course, but he could be Dre Greenlaw. Al-Shaair was Ryans' third linebacker in San Francisco behind Warner and Greenlaw, but he fits the bill perfectly; he's fast as all get-out, violent into contact, a reliable tackler and fast to knife between linemen and create disruption in the backfield.
His time in Tennessee wasn't great, but that scheme was far different. In Houston, where Ryans will free him to play with his hair on fire, Al-Shaair will produce far more splashes than any of Houston's linebackers last season. Do not be surprised when he's among the league leaders in tackles -- and, more importantly, tackles for loss -- on an improving Texans defense.
Indianapolis Colts: CB JuJu Brents
Few general managers have more faith in their ability to draft and develop than Chris Ballard in Indianapolis. Rightfully so, as he has churned out plenty of starters from selections beyond the first round in his seven years there. This year, Ballard's big bet is on the secondary, where the Colts will be starting 2023 draft picks at cornerback: Brents, the second-rounder, and Jaylon Jones, the seventh-rounder.
Both played last season, but Brents had the better film and the better draft pedigree, so he'll be CB1. In Gus Bradley's defense, that job is simple: line up tight to the line, press that outside receiver and either carry him in man or zone off to a deep third. Brents is a classic Seattle Cover 3 corner -- he's almost 6-foot-3, has a 99th percentile wingspan and is a hugely explosive mover -- so he fits both Bradley's defense and Ballard's predilections. It's no wonder why they like him and trust him.
But Brents was banged up a lot last season, and as most rookie corners do, was too often guessing and grabbing in coverage. The expected Year 2 jump in technique, comfort and anticipation is one-half of the needed Brents leap -- the other half is availability. But this defense lived on sacks in 2023, which helped end drives that were otherwise cruising. The Colts ranked 25th in pressure rate but second in sack rate, which is simply unsustainable production. The coverage must be better in Indianapolis this season, and the bulk of that burden falls on Brents.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Edge Travon Walker
I really tried to find a different X factor for the Jaguars than Walker. Arik Armstead is a fine candidate, as a good interior pass rusher beside Josh Hines-Allen would be big. But man, a good edge pass rusher would be even better, and would you look at that! The Jaguars have a former No. 1 overall pick right there waiting.
Walker's first two seasons have been a disappointment for his draft capital, but I don't think they've been a total waste. I'm willing to hold out hope. He was drafted as a young player for his physical tools, so a learning curve was expected -- and because he's rather a unique body for the edge, there have been some crossed wires in his development. Under Mike Caldwell over the past two seasons, he was lined up outside of the tight end on over 80% of his snaps, often in a two-point stance. That role simply doesn't maximize a 6-foot-5, 270-pound player who is vocally excited to play with "his hand in the dirt" in Ryan Nielsen's defense this season. Nielsen was a defensive line coach in New Orleans, where the Saints feasted with supersized defensive ends Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport and Carl Granderson.
Walker ended up with 10 sacks last season, but much of that production was cleaning up. That's OK -- I don't need him to be a double-digit sack guy. If he consistently pushes the pocket opposite Hines-Allen and wins his one-on-ones when the opposing offense slides the other way, he'll do his part to keep Hines-Allen among the league's most productive edge rushers.
Tennessee Titans: CB L'Jarius Sneed
The Titans have made lots of moves this offseason. Just in the time since I started writing this blurb, they traded for linebacker Ernest Jones IV and traded away cornerback Elijah Molden. Their biggest trade of the offseason, without question, was the acquisition of Sneed. The Titans sent a third-round pick to bring Sneed to Tennessee and immediately extend his contract for four years, $76.4 million with $55 million guaranteed.
Sneed was a hand-in-glove fit for the Steve Spagnuolo defense in Kansas City. A college safety who converted to corner over his time there, he could dominate in press man coverage (ask Tyreek Hill), then zip over to the slot and stick his nose into a running play, then zoom back to a deep zone and play like a safety. Now that Sneed is out of Kansas City, the question is: How will new Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson use him?
It sounds like Wilson will use Sneed as he was deployed in his final season with the Chiefs, primarily as an outside, press-man corner. With top-10 money at the position, he must be the dominant, game-altering force he was for the Super Bowl champions. It's hard to predict exactly what the Titans' floor and ceiling are as a team -- they've added so many new players, all new coaches and Will Levis is still a question mark at quarterback -- but Sneed is one of the key dominoes that must fall for a successful season.