When Aaron Judge exploded for seven home runs in six games, becoming only the fifth player with three 50-homer seasons, his historically great 2024 reached the point where we have to ask: Could this be the greatest season by a hitter in MLB history?
It's a reasonable question given his numbers. Even after going 3-for-9 without a home run in three games this week, Judge is hitting .333/.467/.731 with 51 home runs and 123 RBIs, putting him on pace for 62 home runs -- which would tie his American League record. He's on pace for 148 RBIs, which would be the highest total since Alex Rodriguez (156) in 2007. His OPS of 1.198 is the highest since Barry Bonds (1.422) in 2004.
He's doing all of this while offense across the major leagues is much lower than when Bonds smashed the single-season home run record in 2001 or when Babe Ruth created new marks of dominance. This season, only six other players are even hitting .300. Only teammate Juan Soto also has an OBP over .400 and Judge is nine home runs ahead of Shohei Ohtani, the only other player to have even reached 40 home runs.
Let's dig into the debate and see what it would take for Judge's season to be the best ever.
Projecting Judge's final numbers
Home runs: 51 (on pace for 62)
The only players with more than 62 homers in a season are Bonds, Mark McGwire (twice) and Sammy Sosa (three times), all players tainted by admitted or alleged performance-enhancing drug use. Judge now has a chance to set the AL home run record for a second time -- and that's despite hitting .207 with only six home runs in the first month. He had only one hit -- a single -- in his first three games in May, then he got hot, which is like calling Venus "balmy."
Over his next 95 games, Judge hit .383, slugged .865, hit 45 home runs and drove in 104 runs. Baseball writer Joe Posnanski dug into the numbers and concluded it was the "greatest 95-game hitting stretch in the long history of baseball." Only five players have hit 45 home runs over a 95-game stretch, topped by Sosa's 50 in 1998. The others were Roger Maris (47 in 1961), McGwire (46 in 1998), Bonds (45 in 2001) and now Judge. Judge had the highest OPS of the five at 1.377, edging out Bonds' 1.373.
If Judge homers at the same pace over the New York Yankees' final 28 games, he'll hit an additional 14 home runs for a season total of 65. Beating his own AL record is certainly in play.
Extra-base hits: 83 (on pace for 101)
Total bases: 341 (on pace for 414)
These two categories go together and cover Judge's all-around brilliance: He's not only slugging home runs but also hitting for a high average. He's on pace for more than 400 total bases and 133 walks (which don't count toward total bases). Of the 29 times a player reached 400 total bases, Judge's projected walk total would rank as the fourth highest. In 16 of the 29 instances, the player drew fewer than 100 walks.
Meanwhile, a player has reached 100 extra-base hits only 15 times, the last in 2001, when four players did it: Bonds, Sosa, Todd Helton and Luis Gonzalez (those four were also the last to reach 400 total bases). In fact, these seasons have primarily come in two high-scoring eras: eight times in the 1920s and 1930s, and six times between 1995 and 2001.
Indeed, this gets back to what makes Judge's season so impressive: He's doing it in an era that's not conducive to huge offensive numbers (though Bobby Witt Jr. is also on pace for just under 400 total bases). In 2001, the MLB average was 4.78 runs per game with a non-pitcher batting average of .268. This season, teams are averaging 4.43 runs with a leaguewide batting average of .244. When Ruth set records for total bases and extra-base hits in 1921, the AL hit .292 as a league and averaged 5.11 runs.
Adjusted batting runs: 87 (on pace for 106)
This statistic, drawn from Baseball-Reference, estimates how many runs a player has created compared to an average hitter from that season given the same number of plate appearances, adjusted for home park.
A player has reached 100 adjusted batting runs only 11 times. Bonds holds the top three figures (with 126 in 2001, 124 in 2002 and 124 in 2004); Ruth holds six of the other 100-plus seasons. Lou Gehrig in 1927 and Ted Williams in 1941 produced the other two. The only other players since 1961 with more than 90 were McGwire in 1998 (95) and Sosa in 2001 (93).
Judge will have the advantage of a 162-game season compared to the 154-game schedules that Ruth, Gehrig and Williams played, but only Bonds has had this kind of offensive season in the 162-game era. And again, Judge is towering over his contemporaries: Soto is second in the majors at 58 batting runs and Witt is third at 55.
WAR: 9.8 (on pace for 11.9)
A position player has achieved 11.5 WAR only 11 times, with Ruth holding the top three totals (14.1 in 1923, 12.8 in 1921 and 12.6 in 1927). I'd actually rate Ruth's 1921 season as his best, when he hit .378 with 59 home runs and set those records with 457 total bases and 119 extra-base hits. (Baseball-Reference rates his 1923 season higher in part because of a higher defensive value.) Bonds comes in at 11.9 WAR for his record-breaking 73-homer season in 2001 and 11.8 for 2002, when he hit .370/.582/.799.
Judge's WAR at the end of April was about 0.4 -- lower than teammate Alex Verdugo. If he produces over his final month the way he has since the beginning of May, he will reach 12.4 WAR, which would tie him for the fourth-highest total for a position player.
How Judge's 2024 compares to ...
Who is Judge trying to chase down? Let's go through all the top candidates (Judge's numbers in this section are entering Wednesday):
Babe Ruth, 1921: .378/.512/.846, 59 HR, 168 RBIs, 12.8 WAR
The argument for Ruth: Set records for total bases and extra-base hits, hit more home runs than five of the other seven AL teams, hit 35 more home runs than anyone else, led the Yankees to the AL pennant (although they lost the World Series)
Why Judge's season could be better: Competition is much better in today's game, pitchers didn't throw as hard when Ruth played, 1921 was a high-scoring season, Ruth had a major home-field advantage with a .926 slugging percentage at the Polo Grounds (where the right-field fence was 258 feet down the line) compared to a mere .772 on the road
It's worth pointing out how much the conditions of the game have changed in a century -- and why that is relevant to the discussion. The argument stems from whether players should be compared only to their peers, requiring subjective adjustments because the quality of the game improves over time. Judge is facing better pitching than Ruth faced. Of course, on the other hand, Ruth didn't use batting gloves, wear a helmet or have video analysis, and he spent his career traveling via train.
One on-the-field difference is Ruth had the advantage of facing the same starting pitcher more times in a game, since the starter was expected to complete the game. Even ignoring the changes in velocity over time, it always has been an advantage to face a pitcher a second, third and fourth time. Look at what it meant to Ruth in 1921:
First time (151 PAs): .250 average, 1.035 OPS
Second time (148 PAs): .398 average, 1.454 OPS
Third time (123 PAs): .473 average, 1.665 OPS
Fourth time (137 PAs): .460 average, 1.618 OPS
Judge, meanwhile, hasn't a faced a starting pitcher a fourth time all season:
First time (131 PAs): .415 average, 1.497 OPS
Second time (128 PAs): .343 average, 1.223 OPS
Third time (98 PAs): .286 average, 1.023 OPS
Fourth time: No PAs
Oddly, Judge has fared better in the first at-bat (he has hit 18 first-inning home runs), although his career numbers are more conventional with better performances facing a starter a second or third time (he has faced a starting pitcher a fourth time only 18 times in his career).
Judge has faced a relief pitcher for 230 plate appearances (39% of his total) -- another obstacle he has had to overcome. He has hit .356 with a 1.276 OPS against starting pitchers compared to .297 with a 1.076 OPS against relievers. Ruth in 1921 had 129 plate appearances against relievers and suffered a similar drop as Judge, even though I doubt any of the relievers he faced were throwing 98 mph: He had a 1.433 OPS against starting pitchers and a 1.018 OPS against relievers.
Hitting is harder now because the conditions of the game are different. That is an argument in Judge's favor.
Ted Williams, 1941: .406/.553/.735, 37 HR, 120 RBIs, 10.6 WAR
The argument for Williams: Last player to hit .400, highest OPS between the Ruth and Bonds eras, weighted on-base average (wOBA) is tied for third best behind only two Ruth seasons, struck out only 27 times
Why Judge's season could be better: Judge has a clear edge over Williams in home runs, Williams benefited from Fenway Park (he hit .428 at home, .380 on the road)
Williams' legendary season has an argument to be the best of all time in terms of pure hitting value, even though his power numbers aren't quite as impressive. He played 143 games and had only 606 plate appearances -- compared to Ruth's 693 in 1921, Bonds' 664 in 2001 or Judge's projected total of 716. Williams also provided little value in the field or on the bases.
Judge has hit better at Yankee Stadium, but he hasn't drawn as large of an advantage as Williams did from Fenway. Judge has hit .344 with 26 home runs at home and .323 with 25 home runs on the road (in three more games).
And for what it's worth, Williams hit .433 against starting pitchers and .291 against relievers (in 120 plate appearances).
Mickey Mantle, 1956: .353/.464/.705, 52 HR, 130 RBIs, 11.2 WAR
The argument for Mantle: Triple Crown winner, led Yankees to World Series title (and hit three home runs in the World Series), hit .444 with runners in scoring position and .373 with eight home runs in 67 at-bats in "late and close" situations, added value in center field and on the bases, dominated his AL peers (Al Kaline was second in WAR at 6.6)
Why Judge's season could be better: Judge has already passed Mantle's 84 batting runs, Mantle had only 79 extra-base hits (he hit 22 doubles), the AL in 1956 was still behind the NL in integrating the league (most of the best players were in the NL)
This was Mantle's greatest season -- and he's the only one on this list to win a World Series, which is perhaps worth considering -- plus he had extraordinary clutch numbers, despite often being pitched around. WAR doesn't factor in any clutch metrics, and this is perhaps one knock against Judge's 2024 season if you really want to get into the weeds. While he has hit .327 and slugged .692 with runners in scoring position, Judge's best numbers have come in low-leverage situations via Baseball-Reference:
High leverage: .292/.453/.583
Medium leverage: .294/.432/.641
Low leverage: .369/.490/.834
On the other hand, Mantle faced a starting pitcher for a fourth time in 80 plate appearances -- and hit .386 with 11 home runs.
Willie Mays, 1965: .317/.398/.645, 52 HR, 112 RBIs, 11.2 WAR
The argument for Mays: The best season for perhaps the game's greatest all-around player, with defense and baserunning value Judge can't match
Why Judge's season could be better: Mays' offense just doesn't stack up to Judge's, with an OBP below .400 and a mere 360 total bases
Mays' best season could have been any of 1954, 1955, 1962, 1964 or this one. He had a lot of great seasons -- and several came in the low-scoring conditions of the mid-1960s, after the strike zone had been enlarged. The 1965 National League hit .249 and averaged only 4.03 runs. The argument for Mays must rest on his defense and baserunning making up for the less offense generated, even adjusting for the era. It's a good one to make, but Mays just didn't get on base enough compared to the other hitters here.
Carl Yastrzemski, 1967: .326/.418/.622, 44 HR, 121 RBIs, 12.5 WAR
The argument for Yastrzemski: Won the Triple Crown, led the Boston Red Sox to the AL pennant that was clinched on the final day, hit .417 in September (including .523 over the final 12 games and 4-for-4 in the season finale), Gold Glove winner
Why Judge's season could be better: Yaz's raw numbers don't match up and he had only 69 batting runs, a number Judge has already surpassed
This might be the greatest clutch season of all time as Yaz carried the Red Sox in a four-team battle for the pennant. His WAR total is helped by terrific defensive metrics in left field -- plus 23 runs above average. Even adjusting for the offensive environment of 1967 (3.70 runs per game), Yaz's offensive numbers aren't as impressive, but his monster stretch run deserves subjective extra credit, and his WAR is fourth all time behind those three Ruth seasons.
With Yaz in mind, it might help Judge's argument to have some memorable clutch hits in September while leading the Yankees to the division title.
Barry Bonds, 2001: .328/.515/.863, 73 HR, 137 RBIs, 11.9 WAR
The argument for Bonds: Records for most home runs, highest slugging percentage and most batting runs in an AL or NL season
Why Judge's season could be better: Bonds was no longer the force on defense or on the bases as he was earlier in his career, and his San Francisco Giants didn't even make the playoffs, the PED allegations leave a cloud over all of his numbers during this time
Bonds hit 73 home runs even though he walked 177 times. He was so good, he broke baseball.
Bonds, of course, saw more relief pitchers than Ruth, Williams or Mantle, although not quite as many as Judge. He hit .358 and slugged .939 against starting pitchers compared to .270 and .718 against relievers (in 226 plate appearances), so even Bonds had a weakness. He faced a starting pitcher for a fourth time in only 21 PAs -- and hit .438 with four home runs.
In the end, Bonds' 2001, 2002 and 2004 seasons probably rate as the three best offensive seasons of all time, at least by analytical measures. He became so good at hitting that pitchers simply stopped pitching to him, leading to 120 intentional walks in 2004. There is no easy answer in how to consider Bonds -- but no hitter perfected the art of hitting better than him.
There are other great seasons we could mention -- Honus Wagner's 1908 season, Gehrig's 1927 or Stan Musial's 1948. Joe Morgan in 1975, Cal Ripken in 1991 and Mookie Betts in 2018 had seasons defined more by all-around illustriousness than just pure offense. The above list is what Judge is going up against, and as of right now, if he keeps it up, he's going to have a very strong case.
Judge is putting up historic numbers at a time when it's harder than ever to do it. It has been a stunning, remarkable season. In another month, we might call it the greatest of all time.