The 12-team College Football Playoff will bring a vastly different experience for fans, players and coaches this fall -- but probably not a different result.
The SEC and Big Ten have combined to win eight of the first 10 playoff titles, and that trend is expected to continue this season. According to ESPN's College Football Power Index, 12 of the top 15 teams are from those two conferences. The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the SEC a 53% chance to win the national championship, followed by the Big Ten (32%).
So which one is really better and deeper? It depends on which commissioner has the mic at media days.
"On the football front, we will be the deepest conference in America," Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark said. "Every week will matter. I'm going to say that one more time. We will be the deepest conference in America, and every week will matter."
The Big 12 might not be the best, but it could be the most competitive. ESPN Analytics projects nine schools with at least a 10% chance to reach the Big 12 championship game and a 5% chance to win the conference title.
And yet ... the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the Big 12 just a 4% chance to win the national championship.
The more things change, the more they stay the same?
Here's a ranking of how the Power 4 conferences will stack up this season, based on their potential playoff contenders.
1. SEC
Should be in: Georgia Bulldogs, Texas Longhorns, Alabama Crimson Tide
Even former Alabama coach Nick Saban said at SEC media days that he thinks Georgia and Texas will play this year for the SEC title, but don't count out first-year Bama coach Kalen DeBoer, who has won everywhere he's been. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Georgia has the best chance of any team in the country to reach the CFP (79%) and the highest chance to win the SEC (33%).
The SEC runner-up has a high chance of earning the No. 5 seed on Selection Day, guaranteeing the league's top two teams are in. If Bama is going to join them, it needs to win conference road games against LSU and Oklahoma -- and avoid a loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
In the running: Ole Miss Rebels, Missouri Tigers, Tennessee Volunteers, Oklahoma Sooners, LSU Tigers, Texas A&M Aggies
The SEC should be a huge beneficiary of the expanded field, as four teams isn't an unrealistic scenario. Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has said this is the most talented roster he has had as head coach there, but time will tell if it's his best team. According to ESPN Analytics, Missouri and Tennessee both have a 6% chance to win the SEC, the fourth-highest behind Georgia, Texas and Bama.
Missouri is coming off an 11-win season and returns one of the nation's top QB-WR duos in the country in Brady Cook and Luther Burden III. Texas A&M isn't short on talent, but it's in a transition season under first-year coach Mike Elko. The season opener against Notre Dame will reveal which one to take more seriously this season. The Vols have high expectations for quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who will be surrounded by talent and an offensive line that returns three starters.
Long shots: Auburn Tigers, Arkansas Razorbacks, Florida Gators, Kentucky Wildcats, Mississippi State Bulldogs, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores
This group features three coaches that are on the hot seat or getting closer to it: Sam Pittman at Arkansas, Billy Napier at Florida and Shane Beamer at South Carolina. Auburn coach Hugh Freeze will call the plays this season, and that should make an immediate improvement (along with a much more talented group of receivers), but his team is still a recruiting class away from where he wants it to be.
2. Big Ten
Should be in: Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ducks have a Heisman hopeful in quarterback Dillon Gabriel, and ESPN's FPI projects them to have the best offense in the country, slightly edging Georgia. The Buckeyes had one of the nation's best defenses last fall, ranking in the top four of the FBS in efficiency, yards per play, total QBR and third-down conversions -- and they should be even better this season. These two teams face each other on Oct. 12 and could meet again in the Big Ten championship -- and conceivably a third time if the CFP seeding falls that way.
According to ESPN Analytics, Oregon is the favorite to win the league (38%), followed by the Buckeyes at 26%. If the Ducks can do that in their inaugural season, it would be the first time someone other than Ohio State or Michigan won the Big Ten since Penn State in 2016.
In the running: Penn State Nittany Lions, Michigan Wolverines, USC Trojans
Conference realignment made the Big Ten more difficult to win, but Penn State also doesn't have to beat both Ohio State and Michigan now to win a nonexistent, very difficult Big Ten East.
ESPN Analytics gives Michigan just a 2% chance to defend its national title after having 13 players drafted, but that doesn't mean the Wolverines aren't talented enough to earn an at-large bid.
There are lofty expectations for USC QB Miller Moss, but the defense is desperate for an upgrade and hoping to get it from first-year coordinator D'Anton Lynn.
Long shots: Illinois Fighting Illini, Indiana Hoosiers, Iowa Hawkeyes, Maryland Terrapins, Michigan State Spartans, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Northwestern Wildcats, Purdue Boilermakers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, UCLA Bruins, Washington Huskies, Wisconsin Badgers
The reality is that none of these teams are as deep or talented as Oregon and Ohio State. The gap between good and great is significant, and while upsets are certainly possible, it would be a surprise to see any of these programs win consistently in the new-look Big Ten when they couldn't do that before.
Washington is returning just 36% of its production from last season, according to Bill Connelly, and that includes just 19% of its offensive production, which is the lowest mark of all 134 FBS teams.
3. ACC
The College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this season. Learn how it will play out, from the first round through the national championship game on Jan. 20, 2025.
Should be in: Florida State Seminoles
The Noles get the benefit of the doubt here because they are coming off an undefeated ACC championship season and answered one of their biggest questions for this year with the addition of transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. The reality, though, is that this league might be more wide open than some are expecting. The Seminoles lost 14 of 22 starters last season -- which is why the second category here is crowded ...
In the running: Clemson Tigers, Louisville Cardinals, Miami Hurricanes, NC State Wolfpack, North Carolina Tar Heels
The ACC no longer has divisions -- and yet the entire league is reminiscent of the ever-unpredictable Coastal Division. ESPN Analytics favors Clemson as the league's No. 2 team, giving the Tigers the second-best chance to win the ACC (19.3%), but Miami is arguably the most talented team in this group. There's a now-or-never aura around Mario Cristobal's ability to parlay it into wins, though. The pieces seem to be in place, with Washington State transfer quarterback Cam Ward playing behind an offensive line that allowed the second-fewest sacks in the ACC last season (16). Louisville, which lost to FSU in the ACC title game last season, is trending up, and NC State coach Dave Doeren might have done the most with the least when it comes to recruiting five-star talent. Questions still loom about Clemson coach Dabo Swinney's reluctance to lean into the transfer portal, but the Tigers return 68% of their overall production from last year. As for UNC? ESPN's FPI projects the Tar Heels to lose two games -- against FSU and rival NC State. Anything can happen in rivalry games, and if UNC finishes the regular season with one loss? They will be in the hunt.
Long shots: Boston College Eagles, Cal Bears, Duke Blue Devils, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Pitt Panthers, SMU Mustangs, Stanford Cardinal, Syracuse Orange, Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wake Forest Demon Deacons
So ... about conference expansion. Cal, Stanford and SMU are going to add mileage to the ACC race, but that's about it. Of those three teams -- and every other team listed here -- only SMU is ranked in the top 25 of ESPN's FPI.
4. Big 12
Should be in: Utah Utes
While ESPN Analytics has Kansas as the projected conference favorite, ESPN BET gives Utah the shortest odds (+325) to win the Big 12 in its first season as a member. The Utes were also chosen by the media to finish first in the league's preseason media poll. Utah has three key ingredients to make a successful run to the CFP -- a veteran head coach in Kyle Whittingham, a proven winner at quarterback in seventh-year player Cam Rising, and one of the nation's stingiest defenses.
Since 2014, there have been 60 releases of the CFP rankings. The Utes have been ranked in 44 of those 60 polls, the most of any team without a playoff appearance. A Big 12 title would change that.
In the running: Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Arizona Wildcats, Oklahoma State Cowboys, West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia?! One upset in the season opener against Penn State could change the narrative around the Mountaineers (and the Nittany Lions' place above) quickly. WVU won five of its last six games last season, including a 30-10 win against the Tar Heels in the Duke's Mayo Bowl.
ESPN Analytics favors Kansas to win the Big 12, giving the Jayhawks a 17% chance. Kansas is projected to have an offense that is at least 10 points better than the average FBS team. Former Arizona coach Jedd Fisch built the Wildcats into a conference contender before he left for Washington, and Oklahoma State has one of the top running backs in the country in Ollie Gordon II.
Kansas State is returning only 37% of its offensive production from last season, which ranks 123rd out of 134 FBS teams. That includes QB Will Howard, who transferred to Ohio State. They should still be in the mix, though, because they return QB Avery Johnson and leading rusher DJ Giddens.
Long shots: Arizona State Sun Devils, BYU Cougars, Baylor Bears, Cincinnati Bearcats, Colorado Buffaloes, Houston Cougars, Iowa State Cyclones, TCU Horned Frogs, Texas Tech Red Raiders, UCF Knights
Until proved otherwise, these teams can best play the role of CFP spoiler. Any Big 12 team that has to travel to UCF needs to be wary of a trap game. Of all of the teams lumped into this group, the Knights might have the best chance at a promotion to a team that has a shot. They were the only Big 12 newcomer to reach a bowl game last year, and landed quarterback KJ Jefferson from the transfer portal, along with former Toledo running back Peny Boone in the portal, after he initially transferred to Louisville.