Florida coach Billy Napier, the expected face of this year's college coaching carousel, offered some simple wisdom earlier this summer when explaining the complex new realities in college sports.
"It has not been easy here the last couple of years now," Napier said at SEC media days. "This is not for the faint of heart. And then the game has evolved and changed every six months."
Since Napier took over at Florida in November of 2021, college football has experienced an unprecedented flurry of change -- free-flowing transfers, NIL payments, looming revenue sharing, the emergence of the superconference era and playoff expansion.
With the season getting underway, a new question looms: Will this impact the annual movement of head coaches in college athletics? Will all this change end up changing the behaviors of schools?
Amid everything, industry experts remain skeptical that pragmaticism will suddenly enter the coaching market. There's a theory that paying the players and setting aside money from revenue sharing will mean that schools will get away from the hundreds of millions they have been forced to budget every year to pay coaches not to coach.
The short answer, recent history and industry sources indicate, is probably not. The enduring beauty of college sports -- the emotion and passion -- hasn't wavered during a global pandemic or when buyout price tags top $76 million. Could this be the year that the buyouts trump emotion?
"It all depends on how much pain the athletic director is under," an industry source said. "I think we always come up with ways to say it's going to be a quiet year. Usually the quickest way for the pain to go away is to fire the coach."
Predicting corrective behavior in a market that has paid more than a half billion in buyout money seems about as wise as investing in the Yellow Pages as a growth industry. As eye-popping as Texas A&M's $76 million buyout for Jimbo Fisher was last year, it was just as eye-popping to see basketball-centric Indiana willing to pay up to $20.8 million for Tom Allen's firing. The stakes are so high, the have-nots are desperate to not get left behind.
There were a record 32 FBS openings in 2023, per statistics kept by the NCAA. There has been an average of just under 24 per year over the past 15 years.
While there's no reason the coaching market will pull a hairpin turn, there are likely variables that will impact the timing and decision-making on the carousel as we enter the 12-team playoff and settle into the transfer portal era.
Hiring a playoff head coach is going to create tricky dynamics. The Florida fan fever dream is for Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin to end up as the head coach at Florida if Napier can't find winning ways. For that to happen, the Gators need to simultaneously root for Ole Miss to lose. Florida's regular season ends Nov. 30. The first college football playoff date is Dec. 20, and Ole Miss is a solid contender to get there. Same goes for whoever the Group of 5 champion is, as its coach would have a hard time taking a job in the traditional timeline.
"If a school really wants a coach and they really want the job, there's going to be some strange things that happen," predicted an industry source.
Another factor that's never been baked into a coaching carousel is the length of the season. The national title game is Jan. 20 this season, accentuating the complications of hiring a blueblood assistant or coordinator in late November. It means they'd be pulling double duty for nearly two months. They'd have to manage the portal, sign high school recruits and have players arrive on campus all while coaching and game-planning for up to four CFP games. While the juggling act has been done before -- Dan Mullen to Mississippi State and Luke Fickell to Cincinnati come to mind -- this could mean added awkwardness for weeks longer.
A factor for power conference assistants and lower-level FBS head jobs is the widening gap between power leagues and the rest of the FBS. LSU's Blake Baker is the highest-paid coordinator in college football for 2024 at $2.5 million. The only Group of 5 head coaches expected in 2024 to make that much are UTSA's Jeff Traylor ($2.5M), Tulane's Jon Sumrall (private), USF's Alex Golesh ($2.5M) and Liberty's Jamey Chadwell (average of more than $4M).
The gap is growing. No Mountain West coach will make more than $2 million in 2024. Jason Candle was the MAC's highest-paid coach last year at more than $1.1 million, and no one in the Sun Belt made more than $1 million.
There are twice as many Power 4 assistant coaches slated to make more than $1.5 million this year (nearly 30) as there are known Group of 5 head coaches slated to make at least $1.5 million (13).
The ability of schools outside the power conferences to recruit and retain players will be under more strain in the power conference era. A league like the AAC gets about $7 million in media revenue this year for its incumbent schools, which is approximately one-eighth of what Big Ten and SEC schools are expected to get.
"The market has changed," said another industry source. "I'm not sure guys are going to be lining up for those [G5] jobs like they have been. The Houstons of the world have moved up, and NIL is at a significantly lower level than assistants at big brands are accustomed to dealing with."
One way that the modern financial realities could impact the carousel is that athletic directors could be firing coaches earlier. Last year, the first firings not for an off-field issue came on Nov. 12 (Texas A&M's Jimbo Fisher and Boise State's Andy Avalos). Both UConn's Randy Edsall and Southern Miss' Jay Hopson exited in the first week of the 2021 and 2020 seasons, respectively, and in 2022 there were six power conference jobs open by Halloween.
One industry source noted that athletic directors can feel the financial momentum slipping away earlier than in prior years because they are raising NIL money in the spring and can't get traction. When that momentum is gone, it can expedite a change earlier in the fall.
"If they realize a team isn't going to make the playoff," observed another industry source, "they'll get a head start on the next job."
What will those jobs be in this cycle? One last observation is that power conference teams are generally going to have to adjust to more difficult schedules with the influx of strong teams into the SEC (Oklahoma and Texas) and the Big Ten (USC, Oregon, Washington and UCLA). There's talk that six wins is the new eight wins in the middle of those leagues, but will the emotional fan bases grasp that?
ACC
HOT: None
WORTH MONITORING: The ACC coaching carousel looms as a litmus test for investment. There are now 17 schools in the league for football, with a distinct variance in how much they care about football. The fragile jobs here -- Cal's four straight losing seasons and Virginia's struggles to launch under Tony Elliott -- appear to have too much to overcome in terms of buyouts.
Virginia has been tepid in investing in football. It opened a new facility this summer, decades later than competitors who aggressively built destination facilities. It has been a nonfactor in high-end NIL conversations. Elliott isn't likely in significant trouble after starting his UVA tenure 6-16. He is well respected in the athletic department, and he'd be owed nearly $15 million if he were fired at the end of this year.
Cal is undergoing significant financial struggles in its athletic department, and it would owe Justin Wilcox more than $15 million. That doesn't seem like an outcome that matches the program's financial realities. He has a record of 36-43 and has made three bowl games, including last season.
(While Pitt took a step back last season at 3-9, it owes Pat Narduzzi more than $40 million after extending him through 2030 in the wake of his ACC title in 2021 and a nine-win 2022 season. Firing him is not happening.)
Big 12
HOT
Baylor: After Dave Aranda led Baylor to the best season in school history in 2021, going 12-1 and winning the Big 12, it would have been hard to project him in this spot.
Schools like Washington and Oregon swooped in to express interest, and Baylor delivered the contract extension that now looms over Aranda's future. But after two lethargic seasons, he's in a classic hot-seat scenario.
The move is not something the school wants to do, as he has been an elite fit in both the athletic department and the school's culture. But after a two-year backslide to 6-7 and 3-9 last year, the administration needs to see the trajectory set in a different direction. Aranda (23-25) would be owed somewhere between $15 million and $19 million if he were fired, with a duty to mitigate likely making that more manageable.
The Baylor program took a distinct pivot after winning at Oklahoma in early November of 2022. The Bears closed that season with four straight losses and are 3-13 since that point, with six double-digit losses last season, including one to Texas State.
Aranda has changed nearly everything, taking over defensive playcalling himself and hiring a new offensive coordinator, Jake Spavital. A recruiting uptick offers some positive vibes. But are there enough wins to completely change the momentum?
WORTH MONITORING: The industry is fascinated by Colorado, as that school's football future comes up in every conversation. No school has more variance because of high-end talent and the unpredictability of head coach Deion Sanders. Will he leave after his sons exhaust their eligibility this season? (He says no.) After going 1-8 in Pac-12 play last year, can he endure another year of criticism if the Buffaloes struggle in the Big 12?
Everyone around college football is laughing at how Colorado is allowing Sanders to treat the local media. Will the results justify the drama?
It's unsurprising that all four of the transitioning schools in the Big 12 in 2023 struggled upon entry last year. Houston fired Dana Holgorsen, and the other three all flailed in league play, with UCF logging three league wins, BYU two and Cincinnati one.
The buyouts for both Cincinnati coach Scott Satterfield ($15.7 million) and BYU's Kalani Sitake (more than $12 million) appear steep for schools finding financial footing in a new league. There's a time cushion baked into rising to a new level. But there's also the reality that whoever is finishing in the bottom quarter of the league will be facing tough questions.
BIG TEN
We've warned you that there will be a wave of turnover, as there has been consistently in the landscape for 15 years. But the Big Ten isn't the place to look, as it's highly unlikely any Big Ten coaches will get fired this year. Ohio State firing Ryan Day isn't realistic, as it would owe the coach with the highest winning percentage of any active coach in college football (more than five years), more than $35 million. Just for him. Firing his assistants would put that price tag well past $45 million.
It will be interesting to see where the pressure points from the Big Ten come. Kirk Ferentz, 69, has consistently said he's content to keep going, and few retire when they have been as consistently good. He has won 28 games the past three years and played in two Big Ten title games.
HOT: None
WORTH MONITORING: The nine-game league schedule means a few programs are inherently going to have ugly records and earn a spot here. But with so many new coaches and clearly established veterans with large guaranteed contracts, there's no clear-cut program under fire.
SEC
This is where things can get interesting. Even with only eight league games -- for now, anyway -- the addition of Oklahoma and Texas will lead to mind-bending schedules and some crooked numbers on the right side of the dash in the standings. We've learned that cost isn't really an object.
HOT
Florida: Billy Napier's record is 11-14 with the Gators, and his buyout would be nearly $26.7 million if he were let go at the end of the regular season. Although A&M's $76 million owed to Jimbo Fisher changed the paradigm of buyout possibility, this would still loom as the second-biggest known buyout in the history of college football. The schedule is all the buzz, with Miami, UCF and a road trip to FSU on the nonconference slate and a four-game stretch of SEC games against preseason No. 1 Georgia (neutral site), at preseason No. 4 Texas and home for No. 13 LSU and No. 6 Ole Miss.
This is the first time since the 1940s that Florida has endured three straight losing seasons, including Napier's back-to-back 6-7 and 5-7 seasons. It's always hard to project coaching decisions when there's a lack of clarity on who'll do the hiring. Florida has an interim president, Kent Fuchs, who wasn't meddlesome in athletics during his previous tenure. Scott Stricklin has more than three years left on his deal, and he's a respected SEC athletic director. Most in those chairs don't get to hire three football coaches, but a whole athletics department/football staff overhaul is a big and expensive haul for an interim president.
Florida also looms as the biggest potential market driver. Last year, Alabama, Michigan State, Texas A&M and Washington gave off giant ripples in the carousel with power conference coaches filling those jobs.
This situation could have a similar impact if Napier can't show consistent progress.
Arkansas: Since Sam Pittman's sun-kissed 9-4 season in 2021, he has trended the wrong way, going 7-6 in 2022 and 4-8 last year. The new SEC dynamics make difficult jobs even harder, and that's why Pittman needs a bit of a trajectory correction to keep going in Fayetteville.
He has one of the goofiest buyouts in college football history, as it's $8.1 million if his record since 2021 is below .500 and $12.15 million if it's at or above .500. He's 20-18 since 2021, so being 5-7 or better will again loom as a huge factor in his future.
Pittman brought in fan favorite Bobby Petrino as the offensive coordinator, and it's always risky hiring a potential replacement on staff.
WORTH MONITORING: Hard jobs in the SEC got distinctly harder with Oklahoma and Texas entering the league. It is tougher to fight into the middle class for addresses like Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and South Carolina. (Things can change fast in either direction -- check the 2023 preseason hot seats for casual Missouri references.)
Vanderbilt is fresh off a winless SEC season under Clark Lea (9-27) as he enters Year 4. It's hard to imagine that school stomaching another massive buyout. The firing of basketball coach Jerry Stackhouse this spring, after he'd been extended in the fall of 2022 without reaching the NCAA tournament, is believed to be one of the biggest in college basketball history. (Reports vary but have started at $15 million.) Lea is an alum projected to be owed in the neighborhood of $18 million, and he was extended prior to the 2023 season through 2029. That's five years after the current season as the school pushes through a massive facility build.
A handful of teams are going to lose a lot of games. Mississippi State's Zach Arnett's status as a one-and-done at MSU last year looms as a reminder of the fragility of SEC tenures. It's hard to imagine many quiet coaching cycles in the SEC. Losing means more as well.
Group of 5
AAC
HOT
East Carolina: Few programs took a more distinct U-turn last year than East Carolina. Mike Houston's incremental build to break through was highlighted by an 8-5 record in 2022. Then came an unexpected drop to a 2-10 season in 2023. Houston has an FCS national title and a lot of goodwill at ECU, but he's 24-34 in Year 6 at a place that believes it should be a high-end job in the recalibrated American Athletic Conference. Jobs outside power leagues are more prone to swings like ECU's with the portal luring away top stars. But there needs to be a change in tenor here. He'd be owed $2.8 million if fired, which is significant money at this level.
Rice: Taking Rice football to back-to-back bowls has been a strong sign of progress for Mike Bloomgren, who enters Year 7 at 22-46. Rice fared well in its leap to the AAC last year, kept the core of the roster together and Bloomgren has been a great fit on campus. Another bowl game and his first winning season would help solidify him for the long term, as Rice returns what's believed to be his best team. There's an uptick in commitment at Rice, which coincides with a need for a continued uptick in performance. (The nonconference schedule offers a path to another bowl.) There's one year remaining on his deal after this season, and he makes in the neighborhood of $900,000.
Temple: Stan Drayton's back-to-back 3-9 seasons have featured just one league win each year. An uptick is needed in competitiveness in AAC play to show a path forward, a tricky task in an era where the portal and NIL have turned the AAC and other non-power leagues into a minor league for the power conferences. It's hard to project how Temple will be with 40 new players, but improvement is needed. Drayton would be owed nearly $1.7 million.
WORTH MONITORING
Charlotte: The Biff Poggi experiment had some bumps, as Charlotte ranked No. 113 in penalties and Poggi suspended several players after a loss to FAU marred by personal fouls. It's been generally a rocky adjustment for Poggi, an outside-the-box hire by athletic director Mike Hill. He was brought in partly because of his wealth and business connections, but some improvement in the product on the field would help.
Mountain West
OPEN
Fresno State: Interim coach Tim Skipper is a former Fresno State player, a graduate of the school and has done two separate coaching stints there. He also has been at Florida, Colorado State, UNLV and Central Michigan. There's a strong core of the staff with Fresno ties, and a strong season by Skipper could maintain continuity at a time when that's difficult to find outside power leagues. New athletic director Garrett Klassy is expected to give Skipper every chance, as his ascension makes sense on paper if the results on the field are strong.
Utah State: New athletic director Diana Sabau showed through financial commitment to the staff of interim coach Nate Dreiling that there's a desire to see him thrive this year and give him a chance to win the job. Since he was elevated in July, Utah State has hired national title-winning junior college coach Troy Morrell and former Division II head coach Dave Wiemers. They are both seasoned coaches with strong track records to help the 33-year-old first-time head coach. Dreiling will ultimately be judged on his culture, the program's competitiveness and his ability to win over the community.
MAC
HOT
Ball State: Mike Neu is a beloved alum and won the MAC in 2020, as Ball State finished ranked No. 23. But there have been diminishing returns in the three seasons since -- 6 wins, 5 wins and then 4 last year. He's 37-56 with just one winning season.
This is another case of a coach who is genuinely liked by the administration and in the community, with a sincere hope he succeeds. He' would be owed $550,000 without mitigation or offset if he's fired. Improvement is needed.
Central Michigan: The combination of Jim McElwain's age (62), back-to-back losing seasons and an NCAA investigation into Connor Stalions' appearance on their sideline in a disguise make that job one that the industry is pondering.
McElwain won the Sun Bowl there, has an overall 29-28 record and is generally considered a good coach with a 21-17 MAC record. The school would owe him $2 million with no mitigation, which is significant money for a MAC school.
WORTH MONITORING: Akron's Joe Moorhead has struggled two years in, going 4-20. He has been courted for offensive coordinator jobs in recent years, so some type of departure could follow if there's another tough year. He has three years remaining after this season and would be owed nearly $1 million if he were fired. Another bad year would seem to bring some type of move to a head.
CONFERENCE USA
HOT
Louisiana Tech: Sonny Cumbie enters Year 3 in need of improvement after back-to-back 3-9 seasons. While it's not quite bowl game or bust, there must be signs that he can get the program back to where it can win consistently. Cumbie is well liked at the school and in the community, but it's a season where progress in the win column is needed. The athletic director who hired Cumbie, Eric Wood, left town for a deputy job at Ole Miss. New athletic director Ryan Ivey would face paying a buyout of about $1.4 million, which isn't insignificant money for that league.
SUN BELT
HOT
Marshall: The best way to sum up Marshall's expectations is that the school chased out former coach Doc Holliday after a 7-3 season in 2020. Charles Huff has been generally good at Marshall, including a win at Notre Dame, three bowls and an overall record of 22-17.
He's on this list because he's in the final year of his contract, as he turned down extension overtures at Marshall because of steep buyout terms. That bet on himself might backfire. It has put him in the rare position of a coach heading into the final year of his deal, which would mean something significant would have to happen in the upcoming months -- a firing, another job or an extension.
Huff lost his leverage and dimmed his prospects for another job by losing seven of nine to close 2023. That came after upsetting Virginia Tech early in the year. Road trips to Ohio State and Virginia Tech this year will make it hard to gain significant early momentum.
Southern Miss.: Will Hall appeared on his way to restoring Southern Miss' proud tradition in his second season in 2022, as the Golden Eagles went 7-6 and won a bowl game. Things dipped distinctly last year, as Hall went 3-9 and the school released a statement in November saying that Hall was coming back and there's a belief the program can compete for championships under Hall.
Hall is 13-24 and faces a classic need-to-win hot seat season. He's well-liked both at the school and in the community, and his return speaks to the faith in his culture. He has brought in veteran coordinator Chip Long to run the offense, and there are hopes of a return to the promise that emerged in 2022. He'd be owed nearly $860,000.