Two weeks have passed since the WNBA returned from its Olympic break, and the league's stars are already focused on the start of the playoffs in less than a month.
Players have produced seven games of 30-plus points since the break, while Caitlin Clark set the all-time rookie assist record and Angel Reese recorded three separate 20-plus rebound games. If 2023 was an unprecedented year for big numbers across the WNBA, 2024 has taken it to an even higher level.
Against that backdrop, it's time to once again check in on this year's rookie class, headlined by Clark and Reese. As always, we'll be ranking the first-year phenoms based on their total consensus wins added, using an average of the following advanced value metrics: Basketball-Reference's win shares (WS), estimated wins added from player efficiency rating (PER) and wins generated via estimated RAPTOR, a plus/minus-style stat that accounts for both a player's individual production and her effect on her team's net rating during a game.
Since each metric has its own points of emphasis -- PER likes volume scoring and WS likes efficiency, while RAPTOR prizes on-court impact -- a blend of the three should give us a holistic view of which players have been producing the most so far this season.
And to see what each player has been good (or bad) at, we'll also list her 0-100 percentile ratings relative to the league in scoring (based on points per 100 possessions), true shooting percentage, passing (based on assist rate), rebounding rate and defensive impact (based on both RAPTOR and defensive rating).
Let's get to the rankings among active (i.e., noninjured) qualified players -- those who have played at least 10 minutes per team game. All rankings and stats are through Aug. 27:
1. Angel Reese, F, Chicago Sky
Last ranked: No. 1 | Draft pick: No. 7 (LSU)
Win shares: 3.0 | PER wins: 3.8 | RAPTOR wins: 3.0 | Consensus: 3.3
Though Clark is an extremely heavy favorite for WNBA Rookie of the Year according to ESPN BET, the metrics continue to give a slight nod to Reese -- though it's getting closer by the day. Reese's narrow edge in PER comes from her stat totals like her numerous double-doubles; she has 22 (including a streak of 15 straight at one point), which is tied for the third most in a WNBA season, just six off of the Connecticut Sun's Alyssa Thomas' record from last season.
Reese also thrives in estimated RAPTOR in part because of her outsized impact on Chicago's performance when she's on the court: The Sky have a net rating of plus-0.6 points per 100 possessions with Reese in the game, and they are an unthinkably bad minus-20.8 per 100 when she sits. Even granting that Chicago has one of the worst benches in the league, Reese has the WNBA's best on-versus-off real plus-minus.
And finally, Reese leads sizably over Clark in WS because of individual efficiency ratings. On just the possessions she is responsible for, Reese is up 4 net points per 100 (104 offensive rating versus 100 defensive rating), while Clark is down 7 net points (101 offense, 108 defense). There are clear limitations to that approach, since it doesn't take into account usage rate -- Clark leads Reese, 26.5% to 22.0% -- but that is a major component of the WS formula, and thus a driving force behind the biggest aspect of our consensus average favoring Reese over Clark.
Where she can improve: Reese's true shooting percentage (46.1%) continues to lag below the league overall (53.4%), in large part because she is making only 39.3% of her 2-pointers. In that regard, her shooting has gotten even worse since returning from the break -- she has made 32.9% of her 2s in August so far -- and she's hitting 66.7% of her free throws this month as well.
Reese is such a dynamic rebounder and foul-drawing force that she makes up the efficiency in other ways, but given her lack of deep range (she's making 18.2% of her 3s on only 11 attempts) Reese still needs to become a much more efficient interior scorer.
2. Caitlin Clark, G, Indiana Fever
Last ranked: No. 2 | Draft pick: No. 1 (Iowa)
Win shares: 2.0 | PER wins: 3.6 | RAPTOR wins: 2.9 | Consensus: 2.8
Since the Fever returned from break, their schedule has been more favorable in terms of opponent strength and the day-to-day grind of the calendar, and Clark is setting new monthly highs in points per game (23.5) and shooting efficiency (62.4 true shooting percentage) in August. Just as importantly, Clark has also improved her turnover problems some: She is down to 4.8 giveaways per game and a turnover rate of 20.1% since play resumed, both season-low figures for a month in her rookie season.
At the pace she has been closing the gap against Reese in these advanced metrics recently, Clark has a good chance to end the year atop this statistical list (in addition to the foregone conclusion that is her official WNBA Rookie of the Year win).
Where she can improve: Even after reducing her turnover rate from a monthly high of 30.4% in June -- which would have put her on pace for one of the most turnover-prone seasons in league history -- Clark's more careful ballhandling recently still places her well below the league average for qualified players (15.6%).
It's true that few (if any) players have as much offensive responsibility as Clark does in Indiana, so giveaways come with the territory, but there's room to reduce the mistakes. Of the 10 qualified WNBA players with an assist rate of 30% or higher this year, only Thomas has a higher turnover rate than Clark.
3. Leonie Fiebich, F, New York Liberty
Last ranked: No. 5 | Draft pick: No. 22 in 2020 (International)
Win shares: 2.3 | PER wins: 1.2 | RAPTOR wins: 2.3 | Consensus: 1.9
Despite being a rookie on the league's best team, Fiebich has carved out more of a role for herself throughout the season, providing the Liberty with efficient play at both ends of the court. On offense, her 38.5% 3-point accuracy ranks second on the team among regulars, just trailing Jonquel Jones (38.7%), and Fiebich has the Liberty's second-highest rate of made 3s per 100 possessions (behind Sabrina Ionescu).
And on the other side of the floor, she has been far from a liability for New York, ranking third among rookies with at least 300 minutes in defensive RAPTOR (+0.7) behind Cameron Brink (+2.4), who missed our ranking because of injury, and Reese (+1.1).
Where she can improve: Although Fiebich is one of the leading candidates for WNBA Sixth Player of the Year -- speaking volumes about her value to the current title favorites -- she isn't asked to do a whole lot offensively beyond shooting for the Liberty. That's understandable, considering the amount of talent around her. But her 62.7% share of shots from beyond the 3-point line is one of the highest rates in the league, and she is one of five players this year to log at least 20 minutes per game with usage and assist rates below 15% and a 3-point attempt share over 60%.
That role makes her one of the biggest specialists in the league, and while she has thrived in that capacity, expanding her game even more might be something to strive for next season.
4. Kamilla Cardoso, C, Chicago Sky
Last ranked: No. 4 | Draft pick: No. 3 (South Carolina)
Win shares: 1.8 | PER wins: 1.7 | RAPTOR wins: 0.7 | Consensus: 1.4
Cardoso has been one of the league's most improved players out of the break, putting together some of her best games as a rookie over the past few weeks. (Witness her 15-point, 14-rebound effort against the Los Angeles Sparks in Chicago's second game back.) When last we checked in, Cardoso was working her way up to speed after missing the first few weeks of the season because of injury, and she was sitting below the league average in both scoring and true shooting percentage.
So far in August, however, she is averaging a monthly high of 12.6 PPG with an impressive 64.9% true shooting mark. Combine that with a rebound rate that was already elite and a 4.0% block rate (second only to Brink among rookies with 300-plus minutes), and Cardoso is making her presence felt all over the box score.
Where she can improve: Remember how we mentioned that Reese and some of Chicago's other starters were associated with massively positive on-versus-off differentials in net rating? That has not been the case with Cardoso so far. Despite her improving stat lines, the Sky are minus-4.3 points per 100 with her on the court, which is 1.4 points per 100 worse than when she sits. That's far from Chicago's worst mark -- Dana Evans has a minus-21.3 mark, the league's most negative differential by far -- but it speaks to a place where Cardoso can improve, specifically on defense.
The Sky's defense gets 4.8 points per 100 possessions worse with her on the court; compare that with the team's 10.4-point improvement in defensive rating with Reese in the game, and it's clear Cardoso has room to get better at that end despite her shot blocking.
5. Aaliyah Edwards, F, Washington Mystics
Last ranked: No. 3 | Draft pick: No. 6 (UConn)
Win shares: 1.2 | PER wins: 1.0 | RAPTOR wins: 0.4 | Consensus: 0.9
Unlike the players above, who have either surged or at least held steady since our last check-in, Edwards has hit one of her roughest patches of the season. Her 4.8 PPG average in August is tracking to be her lowest scoring month of the season, and her average game score over the five games in that sample is her worst five-game stretch since the first three weeks of her WNBA career.
Edwards hasn't shot poorly during this stretch -- she actually raised her standing relative to the league in true shooting since our previous ranking -- and she continues to be a plus on the glass, but she hasn't played so much as 21 minutes in a game since July 10, after averaging nearly 27 MPG in June.
Where she can improve: Edwards' 9.7% assist rate is tied for seventh lowest among WNBA players with at least 500 minutes this season, and her 2.4% 3-point shooting attempt rate is fifth lowest. That lack of passing and spacing makes the Mystics easier to defend when she gets the ball, which is part of why Washington's offense gets less efficient by 4.7 points per 100 possessions with Edwards on the floor.
So working on either aspect of the game in the offseason could make Edwards' stats much better next season -- and given her improvement as an upperclassman at UConn, don't bet against that happening.
6. Rickea Jackson, F, Los Angeles Sparks
Last ranked: No. 7 | Draft pick: No. 4 (Tennessee)
Win shares: 0.6 | PER wins: 0.7 | RAPTOR wins: 0.0 | Consensus: 0.4
Why isn't Jackson higher up on this list? Jackson's rookie impact hasn't quite been what we would expect from the sum of her skills. She scores at an above-average rate (22.7 points per 100 possessions) and does it with good efficiency (55.4% true shooting). Both factors have improved since the break; she's setting new monthly highs in PPG and true shooting percentage in August to date. Her 8.4% rebound rate is even above the median for qualified players (8.1%). And yet, each of the metrics we use is down on her to some degree.
Estimated RAPTOR dislikes her huge negative on-versus-off differential (minus-6.9 points per 100 -- including minus-5.2 on offense, which we would expect to be her calling card). WS doesn't like her mediocre offensive rating (100) and her minimal steals and blocks on one of the league's worst defensive squads. And even PER, the stat that looks most favorably upon empty scoring calories, rates Jackson as a 13.1 (league average is 15.0).
Where she can improve: More impact in the non-scoring areas of the game could do wonders for Jackson's numbers. According to Her Hoop Stats, Jackson ranks in the 36th percentile of players in defensive rebounding, the 25th percentile in blocks, the 18th percentile in assists and the 11th percentile in steals.
Essentially, she is well below average when she's not looking to shoot or hunting for offensive boards, which is a good recipe for decent-looking averages but less impressive advanced metrics.
7. Kate Martin, G, Las Vegas Aces
Last ranked: No. 6 | Draft pick: No. 18 (Iowa)
Win shares: 0.2 | PER wins: -0.4 | RAPTOR wins: 0.1 | Consensus: 0.0
Martin's slide in the rankings, which had already begun by our last check-in, has continued. She injured her Achilles tendon right before the Olympics, having to be carried off the court, and she is averaging zero PPG on only 2.9 minutes per contest since the Aces came back from break. (She was also a DNP -- coach's decision against the Lynx last week.) Martin might still be hurting from an injury that seemed pretty scary in the moment, but it's also true the Aces have better options they can play at guard right now.
Where she can improve: Provided she is healthy, Martin needs to become less of a one-dimensional player. We mentioned above that Fiebich plays a narrow role as a 3-point specialist, but Martin was an even more extreme version of that even when she was getting playing time early in the season. (She has taken 71.1% of her shots from downtown, with an 11.5% assist rate and a minuscule usage rate of 13.2%.)
If that doesn't change, her potential might be limited: The same player who scored double figures in 30 of 39 games as a senior at Iowa has done it just twice in 27 appearances for the Aces.
Best of the non-qualifiers:
Jacy Sheldon, G, Dallas Wings (-0.8 consensus wins)
Julie Vanloo, G, Washington Mystics (-0.9)
Sevgi Uzun, G, Wings (-1.0)