A month ago, we were embroiled in the usual swirl of speculation, reporting and reaction that accelerates as the MLB trade deadline approaches. Then, just like that, it's over, back to the regularly scheduled pennant races. Thanks for tuning in.
For teams in contention, the trade deadline and the pennant races are intrinsically linked. The players you acquire at the former are supposed to help you with the latter. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
It'll be years before we can declare ultimate winners and losers on individual deals. What we can do is see which teams have gleaned the biggest impact -- so far -- from the deadline rush, and which teams are still looking for a return.
In the past, we've revisited our initial analysis to the deals by looking at how the playoff odds have changed over the subsequent month. We're doing that again, but we've added a look at the individuals involved in the deals by tallying up the win probability added for each player in their new organization, using the WPA model at TruMedia.
We've made two measures for each team: the post-trade WPA for each player the team added, as well as the WPA of any players sent away in the deals. Teams were then ranked by the net total of these two measurements.
One month ago, we thought we knew who won and lost the deadline, but given the early returns of what's actually transpired on the field, how well are those assessments holding up?
Two contenders that crushed it
Kansas City Royals
+2.34 WPA (2.07 in, -0.27 out)
Playoffs: 44% then | 85% now
The Royals' 2024 season has morphed from surprising to shocking over the past month. Kansas City's persistent rise to the top of the American League has been fueled by the same cast that put it in position to add at the deadline -- Bobby Witt Jr, Salvador Perez and the starting pitchers. Still, without the moves J.J. Picollo made at the deadline, it's doubtful the Royals would have gone from a 50/50 shot at the last wild card to a team with legitimate aspirations for a first-round bye. Michael Lorenzen has changed his pitch mix and posted a sub-2.00 ERA as a Royal. Paul DeJong has five homers and a .968 OPS. And Lucas Erceg has been the single most impactful acquisition of the entire deadline, giving the Royals the lockdown high-leverage reliever they had to have.
Los Angeles Dodgers
+2.21 WPA (1.26 in, -0.95 out)
Playoffs: 99% then | 100% now
Jack Flaherty has been very good over his first five Dodgers starts, but the revelation has been Michael Kopech. Kopech has tweaked his arsenal under the Dodgers' guidance, posted a 0.68 ERA with a 19:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and entered the saves mix for Dave Roberts. The flip side of that net WPA figure is Miguel Vargas, who started his White Sox career by hitting .097 over his first 18 games. If all of this reads as much an indictment of the White Sox as a slap on the back for the Dodgers, so be it. As for the Dodgers, they were a cinch for the playoffs then and remain so. The real story will be told in October.
Four contenders that helped themselves
San Diego Padres
+0.99 WPA (0.90 in, -0.09 out)
Playoffs: 67% then | 96% now
Tanner Scott (two saves), Jason Adam (21:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio) and Bryan Hoeing (1.20 ERA) have all pitched well. The real revelation has been starter Martin Perez, who has a 2.70 ERA over five starts for San Diego. All in all, the real story of this deadline will be told in the playoffs, when we get to see the super-deep revamped bullpen lined up in a postseason context. Happily, for San Diego fans, the Padres have done nothing but solidify their shot at the bracket since the deadline. After that run ends, it'll be a few years before we know if the considerable collection of talent A.J. Preller dealt away at the deadline was worth it.
New York Yankees
+0.65 WPA (0.21 in, -0.44 out)
Playoffs: 100% then | 100% now
The Yankees' deadline is mostly redeemed by the energy and production provided by Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has a 1.020 OPS, 9 homers and 6 steals in 20 games. Mark Leiter Jr. was supposed to add a key high-leverage hammer for the bullpen, and while Aaron Boone has turned to him frequently, Leiter's command has been inconsistent, leading to too many walks and long balls. The outgoing WPA, which works in New York's favor, is mostly a reflection of a couple of shaky early appearances by Caleb Ferguson, who New York sent to the Astros, but he has been mostly steady since then. For the Yankees to truly win this deadline, they need Leiter to get going. Also, if Chisholm had not returned more quickly than anticipated from a UCL sprain, this would look pretty bleak.
Arizona Diamondbacks
+0.57 WPA (0.57 in, 0.00 out)
Playoffs: 55% then | 98% now
The Arizona deadline looked very straightforward a month ago, and it still does. A.J. Puk was brought in as a jolt to the bullpen and he has been outstanding (0.69 ERA, 0.94 FIP over 15 outings). Dylan Floro (5.79) has struggled in a lower-leverage role. And streaky Josh Bell had some nice moments early but since has cooled. Christian Walker is due back soon from his oblique problem, so Arizona should be fine even if Bell doesn't catch fire again.
Philadelphia Phillies
+0.23 WPA (-0.23 in, -0.46 out)
Playoffs: 100% then | 100% now
The Phillies can't live on schadenfreude alone. Gregory Soto's 10.80 ERA for the Orioles suggests Philly sent him away just in time. But Seranthony Dominguez has been solid for Baltimore, while the Phillies haven't gotten much from Austin Hays. Tanner Banks has been so-so. The Phillies' big pick up, reliever Carlos Estevez, has been solid enough while pitching in a role that gives him the bullpen's highest average leverage index. The story of the deadline centers entirely on how Estevez pitches for the Phillies in October.
Three contenders with plus-WPA that did NOT have a good deadline
Baltimore Orioles
+0.59 WPA (-0.17 in, -0.76 out)
Playoffs: 99% then | 99% now
Misleading rating alert: The Orioles have had poor returns on their deadline work. They come out ahead in the WPA mix simply because Kyle Stowers has a 43 OPS+ while playing everyday for Miami. He would not have been a factor for Baltimore had he not been traded. So the real focus has to be on that minus figure for incoming WPA, a reflection of good news (Zach Eflin, Austin Slater) and bad news (Soto, Trevor Rogers). Even the good news is mixed, as Eflin landed on the IL with shoulder inflammation. With Rogers (7.11 ERA for the Orioles) now trying to find his way in Triple-A, this bleak picture might not change any time soon. And yet Baltimore still might be the best team in the majors. The deadline isn't everything, you know.
Boston Red Sox
+0.41 WPA (0.41 in, 0.00 out)
Playoffs: 42% then | 27% now
Another misleading rating alert: Danny Jansen got to do a real-life Bugs Bunny impression and also has played pretty well behind the plate. He hasn't hit overall, but has had enough clutch production to keep his WPA in the black. Then things get ugly. The James Paxton pickup looked like a non sequitur but that was more a DFA-related move than a deadline splash. Now he's hurt anyway. The real trouble has been relievers Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims. Garcia appeared to be turning things around but wound up on the IL with elbow inflammation, the same day Sims went on the shelf with a lat strain. Also let's not lose sight of the fact that Boston's playoff probabilities have dwindled considerably over the past month.
Atlanta Braves
+0.17 WPA (0.17 in, 0.00 out)
Playoffs: 87% then | 92% now
Jorge Soler's positive WPA (0.58) slightly outmeasures Luke Jackson's negative (minus-0.41) and that's your Atlanta Braves' deadline work. It's also misleading. Soler has five homers and a couple of clutch hits. Four of the homers came in a three-game spree at Coors Field and overall, Soler has had too many unproductive games and his trend line is pointed straight down. And that's just his hitting. Soler's Frankenstein act in the field has been far too evident and, at last check, the presence of Marcell Ozuna means Atlanta still doesn't have at-bats for him at DH.
Two contenders that didn't really help themselves -- but it hasn't mattered
Houston Astros
-0.08 WPA (0.09 in, 0.17 out)
Playoffs: 66% then | 92% now
Yusei Kikuchi has been consistent for Houston, which has been a help to the rotation as it continues to round into postseason form. As mentioned in the Yankees' entry, Ferguson has an ugly WPA but has been solid of late and hasn't been used in high leverage anyway. Overall, it still looks like a quiet deadline for Houston. Nevertheless, the Astros now look even more bound for another AL West title than they did a month ago.
Minnesota Twins
-0.31 WPA (-0.31 in, 0.00 out)
Playoffs: 85% then | 82% now
Minnesota almost did zilch at the deadline, adding Trevor Richards from Toronto to the bullpen mix in news that broke very late on deadline day. Richards didn't pitch that well for Minnesota and wound up getting DFA'd. With all of this nonactivity, the Twins have slipped behind the Royals in the standings.
Three contenders that have slipped
New York Mets
-0.33 WPA (-0.33 in, 0.00 out)
Playoffs: 54% then | 10% now
The Mets have mostly treaded water while fellow NL wild-card contenders San Diego and Arizona have set a searing pace. That leaves New York's sole path to the postseason the last slot, which would mean overtaking division rival Atlanta. The Mets have a doable games-behind figure but have a much worse going-forward projection than Atlanta. Thus their playoff odds have plummeted. The Mets were proactive at the deadline. Early pickup Phil Maton has helped, but Jesse Winker, Ryne Stanek, Paul Blackburn and Huascar Brazoban are in the red by WPA. (Brazoban in particular has floundered.)
St. Louis Cardinals
-0.37 WPA (-0.09 in, 0.28 out)
Playoffs: 17% then | 1% now
Tommy Pham started fast but has quieted down for the Cardinals, while Erick Fedde has sadly reverted to his pre-Korea form. That makes him one of the deadline's more disappointing characters. What's mainly driving the negative WPA figure for St. Louis is something you could have seen coming from a mile away: Dylan Carlson has been way better for Tampa Bay (107 OPS+) than he was for St. Louis (46). Making things infinitely worse, Carlson was traded for veteran reliever Shawn Armstrong, who was DFA'd this week even though he had a 2.84 ERA with 12 strikeouts and two walks over 12⅔ innings for St. Louis. Perhaps related: The Cardinals haven't played well since the deadline, and their playoff chances have all but evaporated.
Texas Rangers
-0.15 WPA (0.43 in, 0.58 out)
Playoffs: 12% then | 0% now
At the moment of the deadline, we still saw a sliver of hope for the Rangers. Get hot, right now, get healthy in the rotation and watch the spirited defense of the World Series crown we figured to see all along. Instead, Texas lost 8-1 at St. Louis on deadline day, 10-1 the next day and never got up off the mat. The title defense is now over. The deadline had little to do with this but we'll point out that Lorenzen's rise in Kansas City has been almost precisely offset by solid work in the Texas bullpen by deadline pickup Andrew Chafin. The negative figure stems from a poor showing from the pitcher Texas received for Lorenzen, lefty Walter Pennington.
Four contenders that had bad deadlines
Pittsburgh Pirates
-1.96 WPA (-1.75 in, 0.21 out)
Playoffs: 14% then | 0% now
It's true: A month ago, the Pirates were among the ranks of fringe contenders. At the deadline, the Bucs behaved accordingly, adding Bryan De La Cruz, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jalen Beeks. It has not gone well, to say the least. De La Cruz (59 OPS+) and Kiner-Falefa (65 OPS+) haven't hit. Beeks has been good, but that didn't stop a series of bullpen meltdowns around the deadline from snowballing into a season-killing 1-12 stretch. Meanwhile, Perez has been outstanding since Pittsburgh traded him to San Diego. Fringe contention at the deadline; dead last today.
Cleveland Guardians
-1.67 WPA (-1.28 in, 0.39 out)
Playoffs: 97% then | 95% now
The Guardians' hold on first place in the AL Central, and a first-round bye, slipped away (at least temporarily) over the course of the month. That's more about seeding than a playoff spot, which remains safe, but the deadline part of this has been pretty much a disaster. Jose Tena was dealt with two other prospects (Alex Clemmey and Rafael Ramirez Jr.) to Washington for Lane Thomas. The latter two haven't reached the majors but Tena has hit .333 for Washington, albeit with a rash of errors at third base. Well, Tena is an infielder and Cleveland wanted outfield help, which Thomas has very much not provided. He has a 23 OPS+ to start his Cleveland career and has struggled in the field. And that's not all! Alex Cobb was acquired from the Giants to bolster a rotation that needed the jolt. Cobb had a shaky outing, a decent outing, didn't miss many bats and wound up on the IL with a fractured fingernail. This all could still turn but right now, it's not a pretty picture for a team that's having a banner overall campaign.
Seattle Mariners
-1.38 WPA (-1.44 in, -0.06 out)
Playoffs: 46% then | 13% now
This is how managers end up getting fired, even if they have little responsibility for the transaction wire. The Mariners' deadline trio of Randy Arozarena, Justin Turner and Yimi Garcia (now injured) have proved to be three of the least productive players who changed teams. Seattle had a 10-game lead in the AL West earlier this season. After losing Tuesday, the Mariners had the same record as the Detroit Tigers (67-66). Things have ticked up a little under Dan Wilson.
Milwaukee Brewers
-1.13 WPA (-0.86 in, 0.27 out)
Playoffs: 89% then | 99% now
Milwaukee's biggest need was to beef up its rotation with the postseason in mind, as the Brewers had (and still have) a stranglehold on the NL Central. Frankie Montas has been pretty good (129 ERA+), though he's slightly in the red by WPA. Aaron Civale is pretty far in the red, though his standard line is around league average (98 ERA+). Neither has resembled the frontline starter Milwaukee needed. We'll find out if this proves to be a fatal flaw when we get to October.
Two contenders stuck on the fence
San Francisco Giants
+0.58 WPA (0.34 in, -0.24 out)
Playoffs: 7% then | 1% now
The Giants have gotten good work from their lone 25-man roster addition, Mark Canha, though he has mostly played a fourth outfielder role. The Giants haven't missed those they sent out -- Jorge Soler, Luke Jackson, Alex Cobb -- but the deadline work still seems unsatisfying. The Giants keep bobbing up and below .500 but as they tread water, the shore (as symbolized by playoff probability) keeps getting further away.
Chicago Cubs
+0.53 WPA (0.00 in, -0.53 out)
Playoffs: 4% then | 5% now
The Cubs were trying to hang around the playoff race while positioning for the future. The results have been mixed, but the short-term lens isn't the decisive one. Chicago has played better but a true push for the playoffs remains exceedingly unlikely. Jack Neely, acquired from the Yankees, looks like a presence but isn't a finished product. Nate Pearson has looked terrific after coming over from Toronto, more than offsetting the loss of Mark Leiter Jr., who has struggled with the Yankees. The biggest concern is Isaac Paredes, brought in from the Rays to be the new everyday third baseman. He hasn't hit and you can't help but notice that he's in reality a career .228 hitter. Even if he had hit, though, his .919 fielding percentage at third base is concerning. Still, it's early and Chicago's moves were more about next season and beyond.
Noncontenders
This section simply sums up the WPA compiled at the big league level for teams that, in general, subtracted at the deadline because of playoff odds that ranged from long shot to nonexistent. The plan was to send out right-now value for future value so, for the most part, you'd expect these teams to have negative net WPA since the deadline, especially since many of the prospects acquired for these clubs have not reached the majors.
Still, some of these noncontenders have already seen positive impact from their newly acquired players. Some of these teams, by shipping out players who have subsequently struggled in their new locales, come out in the positive -- literal cases of addition by subtraction.
The Nationals, Blue Jays and Rockies not only sent out players who haven't played well since, but also have gotten some immediate returns from the young players they brought back. For Washington, we're mostly talking about Thomas' struggles for Cleveland as opposed to Tena's 135 OPS+ since arriving in D.C.
Toronto has gotten a 128 OPS+ during the first big league stint for Will Wagner, while the struggles of outgoing veterans Garcia (Mariners), Richards (Twins), Turner (Mariners) and Kiner-Falefa (Pirates) have outweighed the positive contributions of Kikuchi (Astros), Jansen (Red Sox), Pearson (Cubs) and Kevin Kiermaier (Dodgers).
As for the White Sox ... this placing is just another footnote in the worst baseball story ever told.