One on hand, the playoff picture is sorting itself out. The once-crowded National League wild-card race now feels like it's down to the Braves, Mets and maybe the Giants for one spot, after the red-hot Diamondbacks and Padres created some separation. The Astros have pulled away from the disintegrating Mariners in the American League West, leaving the Red Sox trying to chase down one of the AL Central teams for a wild card.
On the other hand: How about that battle for the best record? With six teams essentially in a dead heat, it's wide open for home-field advantage. I can't remember a season with so many teams in play for best overall record. And those six teams might not even be the best teams right now, as Arizona, San Diego and Houston are clearly playing the best baseball.
It all sets up a hectic finish for the final playoff spots, several of the division races and playoff seeding. Let's look at each of the contenders -- ranked according to Bradford Doolittle's playoff odds -- and focus on the biggest strength that got them in this position.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Los Angeles Dodgers (Playoff odds: 100%)
Biggest strength: A lineup that suddenly looks a lot scarier
All season, it's been the Shohei Ohtani show, which has been astonishing, with a large dosage of Freddie Freeman mixed in, and some Mookie Betts when he wasn't injured, plus some Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith. Now the Dodgers are getting healthy and the lineup might be the best in the majors:
Betts returned last week, moving to right field to fill a hole there.
Max Muncy returned Monday, after missing three months, and homered in his first two games.
Gavin Lux has been on fire, hitting .358/.423/.670 since July 11.
Tommy Edman, acquired at the trade deadline, has played his first games of the season.
Even with all the injuries (and Freeman will now play through a hairline fracture in his right middle finger) and poor performance from the fill-ins, the Dodgers are second in the NL in runs scored. The machinations have also improved the Dodgers defensively at three positions: Edman in center field, Betts in right field and Miguel Rojas or Nick Ahmed at shortstop. They still need to get Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto healthy for October (Yamamoto threw a second sim game on Wednesday and should soon start a rehab assignment) to be at full strength, but the Dodgers have appeared to fix some of their problems. Michael Kopech might have suddenly morphed into a dominant closer, too: Since joining the Dodgers, he's allowed no runs and one hit in 9⅓ innings.
Philadelphia Phillies (Playoff odds: 99.8%)
Biggest strength: Starting rotation
The Phillies rank second to the Seattle Mariners in most rotation categories: ERA, innings pitched, lowest batting average, lowest OPS. They lead in FanGraphs WAR. Zack Wheeler has once again led the way, going 12-6 with a 2.73 ERA, and he's in a group of maybe four starters leading the NL Cy Young race. Wheeler rarely gets mentioned as the best starter in baseball -- probably because he has never won a Cy Young -- but it seems pretty clear he deserves the title based on his body of work over the long haul. Since 2020, he leads all starters in both bWAR (more than four wins better than Gerrit Cole) and fWAR (two wins better than Corbin Burnes). His postseason performance the past two Octobers speaks for itself: 2.42 ERA across 11 starts. If you're picking a starter for a big game, he's the guy you want out there.
For the rotation to remain a strength, the Phillies do need to get Ranger Suarez back; he's been out since late July with lower back soreness, but that might not be the worst thing, as pitching coach Caleb Cotham recently told The Athletic: "A little bit of rest to reset is probably a good thing for when we're going to hit the gas." Cristopher Sanchez, who joined Wheeler and Suarez on the All-Star team, has also been up-and-down of late, and fifth starter Taijuan Walker has struggled.
A few weeks ago, the bullpen would have been viewed as just as big a strength as the rotation, but it also has struggled the past few weeks, including a 4.91 ERA in August. Orion Kerkering has been hit hard and Jose Alvarado's control issues have popped up again. New closer Carlos Estevez has allowed five runs in eight appearances, so it's not clear if he's the answer to the ninth-inning issues the team had in October with Craig Kimbrel.
Milwaukee Brewers (Playoff odds: 99.5%)
Biggest strength: Defense
I could have gone with the bullpen here -- it has been extraordinarily clutch, ranking second in the majors in win probability added, and that was without Devin Williams most of the season -- but I feel the best summary of the Brewers is youth, speed and energy, which translates in this context to an excellent team defense that ranks third in the majors in defensive runs saved.
Second baseman Brice Turang will probably win a Gold Glove, and the Brewers line up three speedsters in the outfield with Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick (or Blake Perkins, who is currently on the injured list). Joey Ortiz is a shortstop playing third, so he has good range there, and Willy Adames is a solid defender at shortstop. The Brewers have allowed the third-lowest batting average on balls in play -- important since the pitching staff is just 20th in strikeout rate.
Indeed, FanGraphs ranks the Brewers' rotation as 24th in the majors in WAR -- and somehow the Brewers are neck and neck with the Braves for fewest runs allowed in the National League. I don't know how this will translate to a postseason run -- especially with Christian Yelich, their best hitter, out for the season -- but the Brewers do have some similarities to the 2015 Royals, a team that relied on defense and a great bullpen to win a World Series.
San Diego Padres (Playoff odds: 95.8%)
Biggest strength: Hitting for average/contact ability
I was tempted to go with the bullpen here, and no doubt A.J. Preller did a terrific job at the deadline to add Tanner Scott and Jason Adam to help set up closer Robert Suarez -- essentially giving the Padres three closers (and they have more depth with the likes of Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon and Yuki Matsui). I also love the one-two punch of Dylan Cease and Michael King at the top of the rotation (and don't sleep on Joe Musgrove, who recently returned from the IL).
But let's go with an old-school statistic: Batting average! The Padres lead the majors with a .265 average while also recording the lowest strikeout rate in the majors:
1. Padres: 17.5%
2. Royals: 18.4%
3. Astros: 19.2%
4. Guardians: 19.7%
5. Diamondbacks: 20.0%
The Padres struggled with runners in scoring position a year ago but have improved their situational hitting. Adding Luis Arraez has helped the overall contact rate, and they lucked into a career year from Jurickson Profar, but the most important change has been replacing strikeout-prone Trent Grisham with rookie Jackson Merrill, who has added enthusiasm, swagger and clutch hitting. Is this all predictive of anything in October? Well, a low strikeout rate leans toward being a positive. The strikeout rate for recent World Series champions:
2023 Rangers: 22.5% (15th)
2022 Astros: 19.5% (second)
2021 Braves: 24.0% (22nd)
2020 Dodgers: 20.3% (third)
2019 Nationals: 20.9% (fifth)
2018 Red Sox: 19.9% (third)
2017 Astros: 17.3% (first)
One note about the Padres' hot August: They've played the Rockies six times, the slumping Pirates six times and the Marlins three times. I still like the momentum here, and the bullpen makes this a better team than it was a month ago, one that could push the Dodgers all the way to the final week for the division title.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Playoff odds: 93.6%)
Biggest strength: Scoring runs
In fact, the D-backs lead the majors in runs scored. Since the beginning of June, the Diamondbacks are averaging a fantastic 5.84 runs per game. To put that number in perspective, the 2004 Red Sox -- with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz -- averaged 5.86 runs per game. Except they did it in a league that averaged 5.01 runs per game; the Diamondbacks are doing it in an MLB that has averaged 4.41 runs per game.
Ketel Marte just landed on the IL with a sprained ankle but had hit his way into the MVP discussion (.298/.370/.560). Corbin Carroll has started hitting with power -- he had two home runs through June, but 12 since then. Jake McCarthy is hitting .365 with a 1.000 OPS since the All-Star break. Eugenio Suarez is slugging .552 in the second half. Joc Pederson has been tremendous. They'll eventually get Christian Walker back. Carroll and McCarthy are burners on the bases, creating more stress for the opposing defense. This is a fun, explosive lineup -- better than last year's lineup that reached the World Series.
Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez are also back after lengthy stints on the IL, although Jordan Montgomery still hasn't put it together. The biggest question is manager Torey Lovullo going with a closer-by-committee approach because of the struggles of Paul Sewald. Maybe rookie Justin Martinez and his 102 mph fastball ends up being the guy.
Atlanta Braves (Playoff odds: 80.3%)
Biggest strength: Starting pitching
The pitching is going to have to continue to dominate as the Braves lost Austin Riley on Sunday to a fractured hand, likely putting him out for the rest of the regular season. Trade deadline acquisition Jorge Soler has provided a lift, and Michael Harris II just returned to the lineup. The Braves could still make an impact in October -- especially if Riley and Ozzie Albies make it back in time and Harris and Matt Olson find something akin to their 2023 offensive production.
But they have to get into the playoffs first, and that means continued great work from Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Max Fried. Sale is currently leading the NL in wins, ERA and strikeouts, which would make him the first NL pitcher to win the pitching Triple Crown since Clayton Kershaw in 2011. Lopez returned this week from missing three weeks because of forearm inflammation and struck out 10 in five innings to beat the Phillies and lower his ERA to 2.05. Fried isn't having his best season but was still an All-Star, limits home runs and obviously has plenty of big-game experience. You can say the same about 40-year-old Charlie Morton -- and that foursome is backed up by an excellent bullpen.
If that blueprint sounds familiar, yes, the 2021 Braves were hardly a powerhouse team either -- certainly not as good as either the 2022 or 2023 Braves. It's hard to imagine the Braves winning without last year's NL MVP, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Cy Young contender Spencer Strider, but this is baseball, and stranger things have happened.
New York Mets (Playoff odds: 20.3%)
Biggest strength: Two hot starters in Sean Manaea and David Peterson
The Mets went 16-8 in June (when the offense went off) and 17-10 in July (when 21 of their 27 games were against losing teams), but they don't really have one particular strength -- maybe Francisco Lindor, if you want to isolate one player, as he has been excellent after a rough April, but he's not a guy who can carry a lineup.
Maybe their best bet to catch the Braves for a wild card is the continued runs from Manaea and Peterson. Manaea had another strong outing in a no-decision against the Orioles on Wednesday (a game the Mets won on Jesse Winker's walk-off home run) and is 6-2 with a 2.83 ERA over his past 13 starts. Peterson is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA over his past seven starts.
Of course, those two lefties don't have a track record of pitching at this level over a longer stretch, so maybe we get back to the offense. In June, the Mets hit .280/.356/.504 as Brandon Nimmo (1.004 OPS), Pete Alonso (.898 OPS) and Mark Vientos (.888 OPS) led the way. Jeff McNeil has been hot the past two months, and they need to get Francisco Alvarez and Winker to contribute, so there is still the potential for the lineup to crush it down the stretch and help the Mets to leapfrog the Braves.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
New York Yankees (Playoff odds: 99.4%)
Biggest strength: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto
It's not just that Judge and Soto have been the two best hitters of 2024, it's that both are having historic seasons once you make the appropriate era adjustments. Judge's 222 OPS+ is the highest since Barry Bonds and the highest non-Bonds figure since Ted Williams in 1957. Soto is at 186, good enough to lead the majors in most seasons.
Rarely have two teammates done this in the same season. In fact, it's a short list of teammates who have posted even a 175 OPS+ in the same season:
2020 Braves: Freddie Freeman (187) and Marcell Ozuna (177)
1989 Giants: Kevin Mitchell (192) and Will Clark (175)
And then a bunch of Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig seasons (six times!)
With Judge and Soto, the Yankees are third in the majors in runs scored. Where would they be without them? They have combined to create about 131 runs more than an average hitter. Replace those two with two average hitters and the Yankees drop from third in runs to 25th -- an offense about equal to the Angels or Cardinals. Replace them with two replacement-level hitters and you might be looking at the 2024 White Sox. There has never been a two-man show like this one.
Of course, doing it in the regular season is one thing. Judge has hit just .211/.310/.462 in 44 career postseason games.
Baltimore Orioles (Playoff odds: 98.1%)
Biggest strength: They hit home runs
The Orioles lead the majors with 195 home runs -- five more than the Yankees, and those two teams are well ahead of the No. 3 Dodgers. The Orioles are also third in the majors in percentage of runs scored via the home run:
1. A's: 50.3%
2. Yankees: 49.2%
3. Orioles: 48.3%
4. Braves: 48.1%
5. Mariners: 45.1%
Some like to say this homer-heavy approach doesn't work in the postseason, but that's nonsense. You win in the postseason by hitting home runs, and hitting more of them than your opponents. The Rangers scored 52.6% of their runs last postseason via the home run. In 2022, the Astros scored 58.5% of their postseason runs via the home run. If anything, hitting home runs becomes more important in October.
The one hitch with the Orioles: They hit 60 home runs in 29 games in June (Anthony Santander went off with 13 home runs) but haven't kept up that pace since then. Still, this is a deep lineup with power throughout -- and with all the injuries in the rotation, the power will have to carry the O's.
Cleveland Guardians (Playoff odds: 95.0%)
Biggest strength: Bullpen
This is a strength with several exclamation points and multiple fire emojis. The Guardians are having perhaps the best bullpen season ever -- and they've needed it since their rotation is the second worst in the majors in fWAR. The Guardians have the best bullpen ERA at 2.65 (the Brewers are second at 3.26), the lowest batting average allowed (.201) and the highest win probability added (plus-12.49, on pace for the highest total ever).
It starts with closer Emmanuel Clase, who has 37 saves and a 0.61 ERA -- he has allowed five unearned runs, but four of those were automatic runners in extra innings (the automatic runner really should be charged to the team, not the individual pitcher). He has allowed a .154 average and a ridiculous .391 OPS because he rarely walks anyone and has surrendered just one home run.
Get this, though: Among pitchers with at least 50 innings, Hunter Gaddis ranks second in lowest OPS and Tim Herrin ranks third (and Cade Smith ranks 11th). Those four are a combined 19-5 with a 1.49 ERA through Tuesday. They've also been worked hard, with all four on pace for 75 appearances. With the Twins and Royals close behind in the division race and the rotation not going deep into games, there is no backing off that group, leaving to wonder how much will be left in the tank for the postseason.
Minnesota Twins (Playoff odds: 90.6%)
Biggest strength: Offensive depth -- if they're healthy
Health is the key. Right now, Royce Lewis is active, but Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are on the IL. Those three have started in the same game just 19 times this season. In the meantime, the Twins have gotten some surprising performances to keep the offense stable, particularly from Jose Miranda (.304 average, .832 OPS) and, lately, Matt Wallner (.946 OPS in 139 plate appearances, although that seems unsustainable with a 38% strikeout rate).
The rotation will have to make do without Joe Ryan, and the bullpen has scuffled in the second half with a 5.35 ERA, although there is talent down there with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands and Jorge Alcala. The Twins have been steady all season, but given how well Lewis (155 OPS+), Correa (148) and Buxton (137) have hit when they have played, this could be a sleeper team in October if the big three are in the lineup.
Houston Astros (Playoff odds: 89.6%)
Biggest strength: Star power
We ran through how the Astros tracked down the Mariners to take over the lead in the AL West, but suffice it to say, the Astros are relying on their old stars ... and one new one:
Yordan Alvarez is still The Man (seventh in the majors in wRC+)
Alex Bregman found his stroke (OPS near .900 since late May)
Jose Altuve is still doing Jose Altuve things
Framber Valdez is 8-0 with a 2.39 ERA over his past 10 starts
Josh Hader hasn't blown a save since April
Hunter Brown added a sinker and has a 2.27 ERA over his past 15 starts
Oh, and Justin Verlander just made it back Wednesday and at some point they should get Kyle Tucker back in the lineup. Given their success in October -- seven straight ALCS appearances -- and some of the weaknesses in the other AL contenders (Baltimore and Cleveland rotations, Yankees closer, Royals bullpen), the Astros might be the team to beat in the AL, even if they end up with the sixth-best record.
Kansas City Royals (Playoff odds: 62.3%)
Biggest strength: Bobby Witt Jr.
There aren't enough superlatives to describe what Witt has done the past two months. His .352 average almost seems like .400 in this day and age.
Best seasons from a position player in Royals history:
George Brett, 1980: 9.4 WAR
George Brett, 1979: 8.6 WAR
Willie Wilson, 1980: 8.5 WAR
Bobby Witt Jr., 2024: 8.5 WAR (with 36 games remaining!)
Look, as Joe Posnanski wrote, "Aaron Judge is doing impossible things, but Witt is absolutely a viable MVP candidate." I fear he's fated for one of the best non-MVP seasons we've seen, however, joining a short list of position players who had a 10-WAR season and didn't win (the last was Mike Trout in 2012, when he lost to Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera).
Here's the secret about the Royals, though: Witt is hardly a one-man show. Indeed, this has crept up on my radar, but entering Wednesday the Royals were tied with the Dodgers and Brewers for the second-best run differential at plus-107, just behind the Yankees at plus-112. Aside from the bullpen, this is a well-rounded team with four good starters and some offense behind Witt in Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin. Witt is the king, but this is a better team than many realize. I kept expecting the Royals to collapse, but right now the playoff odds are in their favor. Coming off 106 losses, that would make them one of the unlikeliest playoff teams we've ever seen.
Boston Red Sox (Playoff odds: 47.6%)
Biggest strength: Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran
The Red Sox are hanging in the wild-card race and will need some help from the Royals or Twins -- and for the offense to carry the team, as the pitching has really struggled of late, with a 5.83 ERA in the second half. (Remember when the rotation had that 2.00 ERA in April?)
As for Boston's dynamic duo, no, Devers and Duran aren't Judge and Soto, but they lead one of the best offenses in the league. They rank fourth and fifth in the majors in extra-base hits, with Duran leading the AL in both doubles and triples. As an aside: Note how the league in 2024 is basically divided among teams that score runs and those that don't. Of the 13 teams that are scoring above the MLB average in runs per game, 12 of them are in the top 13 in winning percentage -- the Braves being the one below-average offense to crack the top winning percentage (squeezing out the Mets, who are 10th in runs scored).
The interesting thing about Boston's offense is it has succeeded despite a high strikeout rate -- only the Rockies and Mariners have fanned more often. After a tough stretch, the Red Sox also just took two of three from the Orioles and two of three from the Astros, so if they can get any kind of pitching, they have a chance.